Expert on case of detained Czech: "China often uses 'hostage diplomacy'"
Czech lower house speaker Tomio Okamura has headed to Beijing for the last part of a visit to China. His trip comes against the backdrop of the arrest of a Czech citizen in China – and amid suggestions China could seek to exchange him for a Chinese national accused of spying in Prague. I discussed the matter with Kateřina Procházková of China-watchers Sinospis.
Tomio Okamura is meeting top officials in Beijing on the final days of his visit to China. Do you think there is any chance of him making a breakthrough in the matter of the detained Czech?
“With regard to the involvement of Czech politicians – you mentioned Tomio Okamura, or MP Renata Vesecká [also in the Czech delegation] – they could in theory make an informal intervention during their stay in Beijing.
“However, the chances of their visit leading to any breakthrough are very, very limited.
“Okamura is neither a member of the Czech cabinet nor responsible for the country’s foreign policy.
“In cases involving detained foreign nationals, as here, the key actors are typically the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Czech Embassy in China, and, if necessary, there are some direct diplomatic engagements.
“Additionally I should say that Okamura’s programme is quite packed, but he is not meeting any important Chinese politicians, or he hasn’t met them yet.
“So I think there is a chance of him meeting someone significant and starting to discuss this issue.”
Czech media have reported that the security services in Prague are acting on the assumption that China will seek to exchange the detained Czech for a Chinese citizen in custody in Czechia on spying charges. But the minister of foreign affairs, Petr Macinka, has said the two cases are unrelated. Do you think he believes that? Or is he saying it for tactical reasons?
“It is probably more likely that the Czech government and Minister Macinka are deliberately avoiding public speculation in order not to further damage relations between Beijing and Prague.
“Or, let’s hope, it’s a better scenario and they don’t want to complicate the ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure consular access and to resolve the whole case.”
Some have said that it was inevitable that China would effectively take a Czech hostage after the arrest of the alleged spy here. Do you think that could be the case?
“For sure. China uses ‘hostage diplomacy’ quite often. In 2018 there were two Canadians detained in China – and both of them were released shortly after the chief financial officer of Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, returned to China from Canada.
“There was another case with an Australian journalist, there were cases in Japan, and recently there was even an American researcher detained in China.
“So this hostage diplomacy is quite common for the Chinese. They use it very often, and we should be aware of that.”
Finally, how do you think the whole situation is most likely to play out, or to end?
“It’s very difficult to predict, but in the best-case scenario the Czech citizen will receive due process and consular access and the case will be resolved without a lengthy period of detention.
“But in the less optimistic scenario the investigative process, under China’s state security legislation, would be lengthy. It would be a lengthy investigation with limited transparency and prolonged legal proceedings overall.
“We’ve seen that in the previous cases with foreign nationals that I mentioned. Detention can last for several years before a resolution is reached.
“It’s also important to note that the man is not the first Czech to be detained or imprisoned in China.
“There’s another Czech national, a student, who is serving a very lengthy sentence – I think about five or six years – in China, following a conviction on drug-trafficking charges.
“This case is legally distinct from the current national security investigation, but it can illustrate legal proceedings involving Czech citizens in China, and how they can be prolonged and difficult to resolve through diplomatic channels, or diplomatic means, alone.”