Pundit: Coalition “will clash more often” now Babiš has immunity
Czech MPs voted on Thursday not to turn the heads of two parties in the coalition governing, Andrej Babiš and Tomio Okamura, over for criminal prosecution in unrelated cases. But now that he has immunity, will Prime Minister Babiš of ANO change his approach to the two smaller partners, Mr. Okamura’s Freedom and Direct Democracy and the Motorists? I discussed the situation with political scientist Jiří Pehe.
“The Czech government coalition is quite unique in that it consists of three parties and two of the leaders of those parties were under criminal investigation. Now they have immunity.
“I don’t think there is any comparable example in the rest of Europe, at this point.
“But the fact that they needed each other to gain immunity somehow, in a very almost perverse way, strengthens their cooperation.”
This vote was largely a formality – it was only going to go one way. But is there a chance, now Mr. Babiš has cleared this hurdle, that he may change his approach to the other parties, particularly the Motorists, who have made a lot of headlines since coming to power?
“Until gaining immunity, Andrej Babiš had actually been quite vulnerable, because he could be extorted by his coalition partners – he depended on them to deliver the votes that would make him gain immunity.
“So his performance in the last two or three months was really awkward, if we compare it with the government from 2018 to 2021, when he was very decisive and he called the shots, so to speak.
“In the last few months he was quite often on the defensive. He was not able to make decisions the way that he is used to.
“So I think now that he has gained immunity some of that may change.
“But of course he is still dependent on the Motorists and Freedom and Direct Democracy for votes in Parliament – without them he doesn’t have a majority.
“But at the same time given that ANO is by far the strongest member in the government coalition he may be more decisive and he may call the shots, so to speak, much more than he has until now.”
It’s still early, or earlyish, days, but do you feel that this three-party coalition is likely to stay the course and to remain in power for the whole of their term?
“I think this is a very unstable coalition, because, although all three parties are basically populist parties, two of them are very different from Babiš’s ANO movement.
“ANO is a purely populist but to some extent centrist party, whereas Mr. Okamura’s Freedom and Direct Democracy and the Motorists are… not really extremists, maybe, but they are extreme right parties.
“And they have priorities which clash with Mr. Babiš’s priorities. He wants to be seen on the European scene, he wants to be respected and he does not want to become engaged in any excesses in foreign policy.
“By contrast, these two parties, especially Mr. Okamura and his party, have policies which in some ways contradict Mr. Babiš’s priorities.
“So we will see what will happen. I think that they will clash more often now, and this coalition may not in the end survive.”
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