Expert: NATO summit dispute linked to next presidential election
Czech politics are currently dominated by a Constitutional Court ruling allowing President Pavel to attend a NATO summit next month, despite the Babiš government’s efforts to block him. But what will actually happen in Ankara? I discussed the situation with Otto Eibl, a political scientist at Masaryk University.
The government seemed to deliberately leave an official decision on who would be in the delegation very late, evidently hoping the president wouldn’t have time to take the matter to the Constitutional Court. Is it surprising that the court delivered a preliminary ruling very quickly?
“It might be surprising, but it wasn’t deciding in a vacuum. And timing was part of the dispute and that was quite obvious.
“But the [summit] accreditation deadline was approaching and the government’s previous handling of the matter created a situation in which any delayed judicial response might have made the president’s participation practically impossible.
“So in that sense the preliminary ruling was not only a legal intervention, but also a response to a procedural strategy that risked deciding the case by delay rather than by constitutional argument.
“So this is what happened.”
What should we make of the response of government politicians? Prime Minister Babiš said he respected what he called a “quick decision”, but Foreign Minister Petr Macinka spoke about the decision as an attempted “constitutional coup”.
“Yes, current developments already show that many members of the government are not satisfied or happy with the outcome.
“They use emotional language, including the framing of the court’s move as a ‘constitutional coup’.
“That suggests that at least Petr Macinka is unlikely to seek de-escalation of the whole situation.
“On the contrary, it is reasonable to expect that Macinka will look for ways to make the president’s participation practically uncomfortable.”
Since the ruling there’s been a dispute over who should lead the delegation, with President Pavel saying it should be him. But there are also reports that the government are still planning to somehow sideline him in Ankara. How do you think things are most likely to play out at the summit?
“It’s difficult to foresee the future. But I believe that the president will play his role and he will be the natural leader of the delegation.
“That’s especially true because he has ties to NATO and he knows all the delegates personally.
“But at the same time, we will see attempts by government representatives to play their roles as well.
“And I’m afraid it will be awkward for most of the actors.”
Regardless of who’s in the right over all of this, isn’t there a large chance of embarrassment for Czechia at this summit?
“I hope that scenario will not come to pass and the embarrassment will be rather low.
“But NATO countries are watching what is going on in the Czech Republic and they clearly see that there is an ongoing conflict between the Castle and the government.
“So yes, at least for the domestic public Petr Macinka and perhaps some other members of the government will do their best to sideline the president.
“But I hope in Ankara everything will go well and that there will be no embarrassment.”
Where does this leave relations between the president and the government? Mr. Macinka previously warned of extreme cohabitation. Will it be all-out war from now on? Or do you think things will calm down?
“I don’t see any attempts to calm down the situation. On the contrary.
“But the Ankara summit is not the most important thing in the conflict between the Castle and the government, or between Petr Pavel and Petr Macinka.
“It is a broader conflict about institutional boundaries.
“It is also a conflict about political culture and the future balance between the president and the government. So this is important, this is what’s going on.
“We have to wait until the final ruling, which will come out in September or in the autumn.
“So we have to wait, but there is no reason for Macinka to back down a bit and to calm the situation down.
“Unfortunately we need to see the current situation as personal revenge against President Pavel [for refusing to make a party colleague of Mr. Macinka’s minister] and as part of preparations for the upcoming presidential elections.
“They are saying that Petr Pavel is taking these steps to lay the groundwork for his future campaign.
“This might be true, but it is also true that the government – Babiš, Macinka – are doing their best to prepare their positions for the future campaign of a governmental candidate.”
