Is ANO’s landslide win in 2024 Czech regional and Senate elections a sign of things to come in 2025?
Last week’s regional elections saw Andrej Babiš and his ANO party triumph in 10 of the 13 regions. On Saturday, ANO also led in the Senate elections, securing eight of the 27 seats contested. Voter turnout was historically low, however, with only 17.5% in the second round. I spoke with political analyst and author Jiří Pehe to discuss the results of both elections and what they mean for ANO ahead of the October 2025 parliamentary elections.
Although considered a relatively minor election, some say Czechia’s regional elections could set up the next parliamentary elections scheduled in a year. Could this election serve as a wake-up call for the ruling coalition?
“Definitely, I think that the regional elections are a signal for next year. The ruling coalition needs to do something, perhaps something quite radical in terms of changing its policies and communication strategies to fend off the growing influence of the opposition.”
ANO had the best results by far, with very stable voting preferences of around one-third of the electorate, do you see them maintaining this popularity up until the parliamentary elections in October 2025?
“Many things may happen in one year, of course. Given the fact that ANO is a one-man project, much depends on Andrej Babiš. But if Babiš stays in politics and stays healthy then of course the coalition will have a big problem. In that case, it can be expected that ANO will win the parliamentary elections and will be able to dictate which parties will enter into a coalition with the movement.”
Just 17.5 percent of eligible voters chose to vote in the second round of the 2024 Senate elections, after an attendance of 30.82 percent in the first round. It is one of the lowest turnouts since the establishment of the independent Czech Republic. What does the low turnout suggest to you?
“Well, we don’t know at this point which segments of the electorate did not come to vote. Of course, we will see some analysts come out with data on voter participation in the next few days.
“But at this point, it seems that the lower participation benefitted the opposition party. The voters of the opposition party were more motivated to vote. That of course in some ways, if it’s true, is good news for the ruling coalition because a higher number of voters participating in the election would probably benefit the government parties.
“I think that ANO’s leader for a long time maintains that the Senate is a useless institution. Now he will probably have to change his tune.
“So, the fact that there will now be 13 senators representing ANO in the Senate is clearly a success for Babiš’s movement. But we should not forget that the Senate has 81 senators and that means that for at least the next few years the parties that formed the current government coalition will have a majority. Right now, even after this election, they will have a constitutional majority.”
