Pundit: It is only possible to succeed against Andrej Babiš with solid coalitions and strong personalities
The opposition ANO party won a landmark victory in the weekend regional and Senate elections, coming out top in 10 of the 13 regions where voting took place. I discussed the outcome of the vote and its possible consequences with political commentator Pavel Havlíček and began by asking what contributed to ANO’s huge success in the elections.
“In my opinion it definitely plays in favour of the main opposition party ANO that it is outside of the government and that the government is becoming less and less popular in general, but what is also important is the regional dynamics in the 13 individual regions. For example in South Bohemia where the highly popular governor Martin Kuba managed to focus on local issues and the campaign revolved around his personality, then the outcome was very different. But in regions where the focus was only on national-level topics then the initiatives by the ruling parties proved largely problematic and led to the downfall of these parties in the elections. I think the best example of this is actually the Pirate Party, which very much lacks a regional presence and strong leadership in the regions and only focusing on national level politics and issues proved highly unsuccessful for them.”
How much has the result damaged the ruling coalition? The leadership of the Pirate Party has resigned and there is speculation the party may even decide to leave the government. How serious is that?
“Definitely, the damage has been recognized by parts of the ruling coalition. Especially the Pirate Party has recognized that losing 96 out of 99 regional deputies is a huge failure. At the same time, there were mixed results for some of the other parties including the Together (SPOLU) coalition in which some of the parties saw a rise in the total number of deputies.
"Overall, what will be important now is how these election results will translate into governments at the regional level. And we are not quite there yet. Because the fact that the ruling parties at the national level did not succeed in winning in some of the regions does not mean that they will not be able to put together a majority and form a government at the regional level. So talks are underway and we will only see the final result of this vote in a couple of days, or even weeks in some cases.”
What can we expect in the run-up to general elections next year? Could this divide the ruling parties even further, as they try to win support individually?
“There will be a higher level of tension and definitely the ruling parties will try to prove themselves in the eyes of voters. Definitely, there must be panic among some of the parties in the ruling coalition, the Pirates above all, but there are question marks hanging over the Christian Democrats as well.
"And we can partially agree with Andrej Babiš (ANO leader) that this was actually a litmus test for next year’s general election and that the ruling parties did not come out of it as a winner – by no means, which also shows that the way might be open for some fundamental changes after next years’ parliamentary elections. That is to be seen. Andrej Babiš is definitely the winner of the regional and of the first round of Senate elections and if he continues along the same lines, he will also be the key player competing at the national level in next year’s general elections.”
If you say this was a litmus test or dress rehearsal for next year’s general elections, then what is the lesson to be learnt –in terms of election strategy and campaigning?
“There are a couple. Definitely, one of them is to follow the regions that are the most diverse and they might give us a good example of what are the trends, what are the moods in the society. One of them is definitely the Central Bohemian Region, around Prague, but also the West Bohemian Region around the city of Pilsen. These are regions that are to be watched, and the results might be quite interesting.
"But also there is the lesson that it is only possible to succeed against the power of Andrej Babiš when having solid coalitions in place. The Pirates did not follow this strategy. They ran on thir own and they failed miserably. On the other hand, the coalition Together (SPOLU) managed to at least defend some of their previous positions when running together and constituting a force together. So that is yet another lesson to be learnt. It is of significance to create regional alliances, to partner with significant forces and to find personalities.
"That is the third lesson: that politics in the regions can only be successful with the right leaders who understand the local dynamics and invest in the regions. Without that, nothing else matters. This proved equally important for the ruling parties and the opposition alike.”
