Zdeněk Tůma and the trials of converting election victory into office
TOP 09’s mayoral candidate in Prague, Zdeněk Tůma, swept to victory in last month’s local elections, pushing the right of centre Civic Democrats (ODS) into second place in the city for the first time in 20 years with 30 percent of the vote. The vote was widely seen as a pent up demand for change and to clean up widely perceived corruption at the top. With negotiations set to culminate this week, we talked with the former central bank governor in his office in a stone’s throw from Old Town Square on November 5.
“Two remarks, I am not very disappointed. It was something that I expected. You must take into account that I was very close to politics. You know that central banks are independent institutions. Nevertheless, we had many interactions with the Finance Ministry and with parliament and so on. So it was not an unknown area for me. So from this point of view I had rational expectations. So I am not surprised. And I feel fine because we managed to significantly win the elections. We managed to get 30 percent support of the electorate which is fine. Nevertheless, it is not enough to rule. In Prague we must form a coalition. And it is true that there might be an option which is a coalition against us. So we are in the middle of negotiations and at the moment it is very difficult to foresee the final outcome.”
There is a phrase in economics that goes ‘Bad money drives good money out.’ Do you have think that applies to what is now happening in Prague and in Czech politics generally?
“Well, it is difficult to say. The point, the challenge, the reason why I accepted the offer of the TOP 09 political party was that the reputation of the City of Prague had been quite low at that moment. People are suspicious regarding the transparency of the institution of the City of Prague and so on. And I also believe that the City of Prague can be managed more efficiently. So from this point of view I look at the City of Prague like a company which can be managed better than at this moment. This was the point, the challenge. So we will see.”
“It is exactly as you say, we are supposed to be bedfellows. It would be the most rational coalition. Moreover, I don’t see any significant differences in our programmes. We might find differences but they should be manageable. We should be able to overcome that. Probably the major problem is that it is a completely new situation for the ODS. The ODS were dominant for the last 20 years in Prague. It was really just itself or in a coalition with the Social Democrats for the last four years. So they know each other. Equally, if they form a coalition with the Social Democrats they would have the office of mayor of the City of Prague. So there are some arguments for them to form a coalition with the Social Democrats despite the fact that from the ideological point of view it is not straightforward.
“Also, there are arguments why we should form a coalition with the Social Democrats. And the point is that the ODS was at the helm of the coalition for so long. It could lead to significant change at a faster pace with this political Party (the Social Democrats). But still, for me, the priority is for a coalition with a right wing political party and is the ODS. And we put on the table a proposal for a coalition agreement. At the moment we are waiting for the response of the ODS.”
But from your point of view a deal with the Social Democrats is possible?
“It is possible. It is not excluded but we are waiting for a response from the ODS first.”
“Perhaps, maybe, I am not an insider as regards the Social Democrats or ODS. So you should ask somebody else on this point.”
If you were a betting man, what chances do you think there are of doing a deal next week. It is really next week or nothing isn’t it?
“Well, I am not a betting man at this moment. I prefer to determine some possibilities when I have some data. So Iam quite reluctant to make any estimate regarding the probability. We’ll see. And the response is more or less the same as to the previous question: I am not an insider. I do not know enough about the situation within the ODS and their internal processes. So it is very difficult to guess.”
Coming back to your decision to go into politics, was it you that approached TOP09 or TOP 09 that approaches you?
“TOP 09 approached me. It was not really my intention, on the contrary I thought that after 12 years in the public sector I would move back either to academia or to the private sector or to a certain combination. So it was not my intention. It was a coincidence that I was finishing my job, or I finished my job, in the central bank and then sooner than I had managed to decide on my future career I was approached by TOP 09. So it was rather a coincidence that I did not start another career as was not at the bank at that time. I was approached by the chairman of the party, Karel Schwarzenberg.”
And presumably you had some other offers from banks, international economic institutions and such like. You were not lacking other opportunities?
What would happen as far as you are concerned if you do not become mayor. Being in opposition in Prague for four years, is that satisfactory for you?
“Well, satisfactory, I would certainly prefer top be mayor because it was the ambition, the challenge, and certainly from the position of mayor I would be in a better position to force through changes. Nevertheless, with respect to the outcome we are fairly close to 50 percent of the mandates in the Prague assembly. So we would be a very strong opposition and I believe that even from that position we can press for changes. And if that is the situation, and it was a risk I knew from the beginning that I could end up in opposition, I would be an opposition member of the assembly, fine. But at the same time it is not a full time job so I would return to my consideration what to do for a living.”
