Trump wins US presidency: how will results impact Czechs?
The victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election has surprised some analysts in both American and international political circles. But how will Czechs be impacted in the years to come from another Trump term? I spoke to the political scientist and author Jiří Pehe to find out what he thinks about the potential impacts on Czechia in trade, security, and foreign policy.
The Republican candidate and former US president, Donald Trump, has emerged as the winner of the 2024 US presidential elections. As of speaking, it looks like Trump has won the popular vote as well as the Electoral College. Many analysts have been surprised by the results. I don’t expect you to be able to speak for other Czechs, but generally, how did you take the results at the time of speaking?
“I was not surprised. I thought Donald Trump had a good chance of winning because in the past we saw in the battleground states when [Trump] was losing in opinion polls to Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden, he either won in the case of the elections in 2016 or lost very closely [in 2020]. This time, it was tied in opinion polls. And it seems there were some hidden votes where people did not make their preferences public. That was one reason I wasn’t surprised that he won in these states.
“I also think the Democrats missed their chance to form a more formidable candidate or to make Kamala Harris a more formidable candidate because Joe Biden procrastinated for a long time and when he decided to withdraw from the race it was too late when Kamala Harris did not have enough time to make her case to the American public.”
And when it comes to the case to the EU public, or Czech public, a lot of people have been speculating about the impact of another Trump term on the EU especially because of how vocal he has been about the proposed tariffs on the EU. So, what do you expect now with the news that Trump gained control of the Senate and potentially the House of Representatives, so he’d have control of the US Congress which means the tariffs could go through? What do you think the impact would be on Czechia and the EU?
“Well, definitely, if Trump pushes ahead on tariffs on European goods, we may have a trade war because the European Union will retaliate. But as far as the Czech Republic is concerned, it’s an export-oriented country, so it will definitely not benefit from this. On the contrary, Czech industries and companies that export to the US could have serious problems. For Czechia, it is not—in any way—good news.”
And then when it comes to the military alliance, NATO. Obviously, in 2023, the US passed a law that the executive branch alone can’t withdraw from NATO. But now with the possibility of taking control of Congress, do you think that anyone in Czechia is concerned about that?
“I don’t think that Czech politicians or political experts are worried about the US withdrawing from NATO. I think that would be rejected by Congress. At the same time, the American president has a lot of powers in running security affairs and he can cause a lot of damage to NATO without Congress.
“So, I think those politicians who believe that perhaps the election of Trump is a good thing for Europe because it will force us to increase expenditures on the military and defense, may not appreciate the fact that Trump is very unpredictable and that the pressure that will be coming from the White House, pressure on NATO to become less dependent on the US, comes at a very bad time because the EU is engaged in a cold war with Russia which could become a hot war if Russia decides to attack one of the countries on the EU’s eastern flank.”
