TerraDrought: Czech and US scientists launch global real-time drought tool
Czech and US scientists have just launched TerraDrought, the first global system for monitoring drought and forecasting its impacts. To better understand how this tool works, what kinds of data it provides, and who it can help, I spoke with Miroslav Trnka, bioclimatologist and team leader at the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences.
So first of all, what exactly is TerraDrought? Where can people access it and what kinds of information does it provide?
"TerraDrought is hosted both by the Global Change Research Institute and the National Drought Monitoring, which is based in the Czech Republic. One access point is terradrought.eu.
"The other access point is through the National Drought Mitigation Centre at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln in the US, via terradrought.unl.edu.
“The platform is essentially a joint product of these two centres. The NDMC has been monitoring drought in North America since about 1995, while CzechGlobe joined in 2012, initially focusing on Czechia and later, from around 2018, on global drought monitoring in collaboration with Windy.com.
"Our main goal was to create a system that combines the strengths of both partners—the data quality, expertise, and long-standing experience. We realised that while many national and continental drought monitoring systems exist, very few offer forecasts, and none provide real-time monitoring of drought impacts.
"We wanted to change that. With today’s technical capabilities and in a rapidly changing climate where drought is becoming a key extreme, we aimed to give people better information, early warnings, and clearer indications of what may happen in the coming days."
So what specific things does the system monitor, and how can this information be used?
"On TerraDrought, users can currently see information about actual soil moisture and how it deviates from what would normally be expected in a given region. We also monitor conventional drought indices that track water balance over longer periods—from a single month to several years—allowing users to understand current conditions in a historical context.
"Scientifically, our goal was to build a system that monitors both physical indicators and real-world impacts at the same time.”
"Users can also access forecasts for roughly the next 10 days. If a region is currently in drought, the system can show whether conditions are likely to improve within the coming week or whether improvement is unlikely. Even a short-term forecast can be valuable for decision-making, and we plan to extend the forecast horizon in the future.
"The second major component concerns drought impacts, something that has been largely unavailable until now. While drought can be defined in many ways, what truly matters is when it affects society—agriculture, energy production, transportation, and more. Each week, we compile drought-related information from global sources in 14 languages, catalogue these impacts, and geo-reference them by country.
"This gives a robust picture of how drought is affecting different regions. For example, if local media in Australia report concerns about harvests, this may be important for grain traders. Or if shipping from South America is delayed due to low water levels in the Amazon River, that insight matters for logistics and market understanding.
"Scientifically, our goal was to build a system that monitors both physical indicators—like soil moisture and water balance—and real-world impacts at the same time. Previously, this could only be done after events had already occurred. With TerraDrought, we can now do it in real time."
Who is TerraDrought intended to serve in practice? You have already mentioned farmers, traders. So I guess it might be useful to a very wide range of professions.
"In the US we have a very large portfolio of professions using drought information. It is used not only by farmers but also, for example, by the stock exchange when indexing prices. There are many uses for strategic decision-making, to understand trade and its consequences — for example, in the grain markets.
"We also try to raise awareness that many droughts go unnoticed. We often start to act on drought only when it is too late to make any meaningful difference."
"Buying the right to purchase wheat or maize, for example, would be affected if I knew that my typical producer or supplier was facing drought.
"We also try to raise awareness that many droughts go unnoticed and do not get attention in the media. We often start to act on drought only when it is too late to make any meaningful difference."
How many people are actually involved in collecting the data and running the whole system?
"It is a surprisingly small number. Behind the forecasting and monitoring of the physical parts — such as soil moisture — there is major modelling effort at the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting in Reading. We get the data from our colleagues at Windy, and then we visualise it on their app.
"For this particular website, we provide both the physical information and the drought impacts. This is a combination of AI methods and a dedicated team of undergraduate and graduate students who have been collecting the data for the past four years. Launching the website was possible only after collecting several years of data — more than 15,000 records — and reviewing tens of thousands more.
"It has been a monumental effort, but the number of students has always been below ten. Currently, I think we have eight colleagues. It is essentially the same team behind the InterDrought or InterSucho website known in Central Europe.
"We also work with colleagues from UNL in Nebraska, who are developing a global integrated drought indicator that aims to create a clear, meaningful map providing one compiled piece of information for a quick overview in this fast-paced world."
And finally, what does the latest data say about the current drought situation in Czechia?
"We launched the system on purpose during the winter months, when we have time to tune it. At the moment, the situation is relatively good. In Europe, including the European Union and the Czech Republic, we have very little drought in terms of soil-moisture deficits, and we see very few impacts.
"Frankly, we are in the wet season, and currently there is no drought — fortunately — at least for the next couple of weeks."
