Pavel warns of a shifting world order and urges Czechia to remain a reliable ally
Marking three years in office in an interview for Czech Television, President Petr Pavel rejected claims that he acts as an “opposition president.” But beyond tensions in domestic politics he focused largely on international issues. Vít Pohanka spoke with Pavel Havlíček, an analyst from the Association for International Affairs and asked him, what he found interesting or surprising in the interview.
While the interview itself followed the usual format of a presidential reflection after several years in office, Havlíček said one aspect stood out: Pavel’s openness to considering another presidential run.
“I think the interview yesterday conducted by the TV with the current head of state was, in a sense, a traditional interview balancing and reflecting on the third anniversary of him being in the office of the Czech president. So in that regard, not so much was surprising in terms of the way the interview was conducted and the questions asked. But of course what was quite interesting to observe was especially in the realm of his own political future,” says Pavel Havlíček in reference to the fact that President Pavel is obviously considering second term in office and candidature 2028.
A strong voice on Ukraine
One of the key themes of the interview was Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. President Pavel again stressed that Moscow had started the conflict and that pressure should be applied to Russia at least as strongly as to Kyiv. According to Havlíček, this position places Pavel among the more assertive voices in the European debate on the war.
“I would still sort of put him in the camp of more hawkish statesmen and heads of states in the European Union in a sense of really putting substantial pressure on the Russian Federation.”
The Pavel Havlíček noted that this stance reflects both Czech national interests and Pavel’s own professional background. Before entering politics, Pavel served as the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee and spent decades working in international security.
That experience, Havlíček said, helps explain why the president frequently frames global developments through the lens of security and alliance politics. His focus on Ukraine also mirrors concerns shared by many Central and Eastern European states, which see Russia’s aggression as a direct threat to the region.
Global crises and their impact on Europe
The interview also touched on the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran. Pavel warned that even distant conflicts can have significant consequences for Europe, from rising energy prices to migration pressures and regional instability. Pavel Havlíček agrees that these concerns are well founded.
“I think it’s very important that we are actually reflecting on this. And this includes the president himself when speaking about the maybe often indirect but very profound impact on the European continent in a wider sense.”
Beyond economic effects, he pointed to security risks such as terrorism, cyber attacks and broader destabilisation. Recent incidents across Europe, he said, illustrate how conflicts in the Middle East can quickly spill over into the European security environment.
For countries like Czechia, which may appear geographically distant from the region, these risks are still very real. The analyst therefore views Pavel’s emphasis on these connections as an attempt to raise public awareness of how global developments can affect domestic security.
Credibility and Europe’s place in a changing world
Another key theme raised in the interview was Czechia’s credibility within NATO and the European Union. President Pavel warned that failing to invest sufficiently in defence could damage the country’s standing among its allies. For Pavel Havlíček, this issue is particularly important for a medium-sized country like Czechia, whose security depends heavily on international partnerships.
“I think it’s very, very important because indeed we are as a mid-sized country inside of the European Union or also the North Atlantic Alliance dependent on how we are often perceived by our closest partners and allies.”
The analyst also noted that Pavel’s comments reflect broader debates about Europe’s future, including the possibility of a more tightly integrated “core Europe.” According to the president, Czechia should aim to remain part of this inner circle rather than drifting to the margins.
More broadly, Pavel Havlíček says the president’s remarks highlight a deeper transformation of the global order. The post-Cold War world, dominated by Western institutions and the United States, is gradually giving way to a more complex and competitive system. In that environment, he argues, European countries must strengthen their cooperation and capacity to act independently and Czechia needs to be part of that and a remain a credible ally of other European democracies.
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