Pundit in wake of attack on opposition leader: “This is probably the most emotional election campaign since 1989”
Campaigning in October’s general elections has reached a hot faze and emotions are running high. Andrej Babiš, leader of the strongest opposition party ANO, was physically attacked during a campaign rally in Moravia-Silesia on Monday, in an incident that made international headlines. Just hours before, a woman tried to spit at Prime Minister Petr Fiala (Spolu) at a rally in western Bohemia. What does that indicate about the character of the campaign and the mood of voters ahead of October’s general elections? These are questions I put to political scientist Jiří Pehe.
“Well, unfortunately, the election campaign is really dominated by emotions much more than discussions about real issues and visions of various parties. This is probably the most emotional election campaign since 1989, when the parties that are currently in the government argue that the Czech democracy itself is being threatened by the possible victory of opposition parties and other parties that challenge the current system. And then we have the opposition parties, which cannot find anything good on the policies of the current government. So, obviously, emotions are very high and that is not a very good situation because the incidents that we have seen in recent days may be actually repeated.”
The opposition ANO party has accused the ruling parties of waging “a campaign of hatred”. We've heard the same arguments from the other side. Is it true? Are we coming close to that?
“Well, I don't really think that the opposition is right in arguing that the government parties are running a campaign of hatred. I think that they, to some extent, legitimately argue that the parties that could take over in the Czech Republic and form the next government have, to some extent, problems with liberal democracy and also some of them are very pro-Russian. So all of that could lead to significant changes, not only in everyday politics, but in the system itself.
“But while they are right in arguing this, I also think that they sometimes lack or do not offer visions, constructive visions of the future of the Czech Republic. And so everything that we see is just basically a very emotional argument about what would happen if the current opposition takes over and then emotional arguments on part of the opposition that if this government continues, the Czech Republic is going to probably experience some kind of economic disaster. And that, of course, is not very conducive to any kind of rational discussion.”
So what are the main issues in these elections? You've already spoken about the main one, which is - which way will the Czech Republic go and will it remain a democracy? Will this overshadow everything else or are there any other outstanding issues in these elections?
“Well, yes, there are some outstanding issues. One of them, of course, is migration, which is being used by the opposition parties in particular. They keep arguing that the Czech Republic would be threatened by mass migration and by the European pact on migration, which, in their opinion, should have never been adopted. Some of them also warn against the further influx of Ukrainian refugees. So this is one very emotional issue where, unfortunately, both sides very often argue in a not very coherent way.
"Then, of course, another battle line is the European Green Deal, where the opposition parties in particular argue that this is not a good idea. That it is totally wrong, that it should be cancelled, that it should be abolished, or if not, then that it should be significantly changed. And the government parties, instead of defending some of the aspects of the Green Deal, which are important are very often also engaged in this very populist approach towards the Green Deal. So some of these discussions about the Green Deal, and what it would mean for the Czech Republic, have become very difficult to understand for average voters. And that, of course, again opens the gates for emotions instead of rational arguments.
“And finally, the third big issue is the economic situation. The opposition keeps arguing that the economic situation in the Czech Republic is bad, bordering on disastrous, whereas the ruling coalition argues that it has managed to bring the state budget under control and that the economic situation actually keeps improving. And although the numbers in this case are on the side of the governing coalition, I think that a lot of people in the Czech Republic are still traumatized by what they experienced two or three years ago in the form of high inflation and high prices of energy. And so, once again, this is a battle line which sort of defines this electoral campaign, but not in a very rational way.”
In view of this very emotional campaign, do you feel that the public is highly polarized ahead of these elections?
“Yes, I think that the public is polarized and it's not a kind of polarization that could be explained in any rational way. It seems that there are a lot of emotions which have to do with dislikes of particular politicians, the way they behave, the way they project themselves and how - if they are from the government camp - how they have acted in the past, but also vice versa. So that's of course something that is not very conducive to making rational election choices.
“And then we have another problem and that is the fact that almost all parties, all major parties have some kind of problem that is currently being played out in the courts or in the form of an investigation of a possible corruption scandal. I could name the Bitcoin scandal that affects the coalition Spolu, then there is the Dozimetr scandal that affects the Mayors and Independents. We have Mr. Babiš (ANO) who is still facing charges in court because of the Stork Nest scandal and then of course Mr. Okamura (SPD) who is being charged with racism and he is being prosecuted. So maybe with the exception of the Pirate Party all major players have some kind of problem with the law and that of course again creates a situation in which quite often emotions play a very important role rather than any kind of rational discourse.”
How may this mood and these strong emotions impact the elections? How may they affect voter turnout, for instance?
“Well, I think that the problem for the ruling coalition at this point is that a lot of their dissatisfied former voters may not cast their ballot. They do not want to vote for Mr. Babiš and his ANO party or any other opposition party because all of those parties are, at this point, basically anti-system parties. And so they are thinking about staying at home. At least that's what various surveys suggest. So, of course if voter participation drops significantly, especially on the side of the ruling coalition, that will be a big problem for the ruling parties.
“That's why I also think that the government parties have decided to run this very emotional campaign about the end of democracy in the Czech Republic if Mr. Babiš (ANO) returns to power. It’s a form of mobilization, but obviously it is not very conducive to some kind of rational discussion of real issues and created this atmosphere in which emotions fly so high that we see these instances of violence.”
