Preparing for the worst: Czechia’s defense strategy in a changing world
As the security situation in Europe grows more uncertain, Czech leaders are calling for urgent steps to strengthen the country’s defenses. US support seems less certain than ever and the Old Continent may soon find that it has to fend for itself.
With war still raging in Ukraine and uncertainty growing about the future of transatlantic alliances, Prime Minister Petr Fiala from the Civic Democratic Party called a special meeting of all the Parliamentary parties this week to discuss the country’s security. Opposition ANO and Freedom and Direct Democracy Parties refused to take part. That is not good, says Petr Kolář, former Czech ambassador to the United States and now a senior advisor to President Petr Pavel:
"It may come to a point where we are forced to defend ourselves against Russian aggression, and the United States might not help us. If there was ever a time for the opposition to take its share of responsibility and, setting aside all disputes over pension or healthcare reform, to focus together with the government on ensuring our citizens are not left exposed and defenseless—then that time is now."
Petr Kolář’s warning comes as the government prepares to invest in major new military capabilities. One of the biggest moves: the decision to buy 24 American F-35 fighter jets—part of a massive modernization effort worth more than 150 billion crowns. But technology alone is not enough.
According to the Chief of the General Staff Karel Řehka, the army will need 7,500 additional soldiers to operate the new systems and meet NATO commitments.
The government is now reviewing legal changes to allow fast-tracking strategic defense projects. All of this, Kolář argues, must be done with an eye to the shifting international order—especially the unpredictable direction of U.S. politics.
"We must also prepare for the possibility that not only might Donald Trump refuse to help us, but that he could actually become our enemy. Considering how he thinks, how he can’t stand opposition and constantly changes his positions, we need to be ready for the worst—so we might then be pleasantly surprised."
At the heart of Kolář’s message is not anti-Americanism—but realism. Even NATO, he says, cannot be taken for granted.
"Article 5 of the Washington Treaty still applies. No one has repealed it. And if listeners recall, the U.S. Congress has actually taken some precautions with Trump: they passed legislation that prevents the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval."
"But today, Congress is controlled by the Republican Party. And when you see Trump’s Republicans laughing and applauding when he says that Greenland will be theirs one way or another—it gives me goosebumps."
Kolář admits he’s emotionally shaken by the current direction of American politics—but insists that Europe, and Czechia, can still act.
"We have Germany, we have France, the UK, and Italy—where Giorgia Meloni is far from Trumpist; she’s trying to calm him down and communicate with him, but she unequivocally supports Ukraine. I want to emphasize that I’m convinced the Czech Republic must be part of this. As Czech poet Jan Neruda said: ‘He who stood still for a moment now stands aside.’ So let’s be present and make sure that, given our wealth, we can build a defense strong enough that not even Russia dares to challenge us."
Whether Czech politicians can find the unity and will to meet these ambitions is still an open question. But with the ground shifting under Europe’s security architecture, many now agree: it’s time to prepare for the worst—even as we hope for the best.
