Social Democrats reinforce position of prime minister and shake future of ruling coalition

Czechs celebrated Easter this weekend, but while most Czechs decorated eggs and baked Easter goodies, over five hundred Social Democrats gathered at Brno's exhibition centre where they made a decision that could have a significant bearing on both the party's and the government's future.

Prime minister Stanislav Gross, photo: CTK

The Social Democrats, the biggest party in the governing coalition, elected Stanislav Gross as party leader and expressed their support for him to continue as prime minister; this despite an ultimatum from their coalition partner the Christian Democrats, who had been threatening to leave the government if Mr Gross was not replaced. Dita Asiedu has been following the developments, Dita what consequences will this have for the political scene?

Well, it's too early to say but it could very well mean that the Social Democrats will soon find themselves in a minority government, especially after their meeting with their coalition partners on Tuesday morning, which brought no result. The leader of the Christian Democrats, Miroslav Kalousek argues that the prime minister's reputation has been damaged beyond repair by questions over his family's personal finances. He stressed that his party will not change its position and will hold a convention in the next few days to vote on the resignation of its three ministers in government.

The position of Mr Gross has been reinforced by his own party's support, but can we really say that it has benefited him and the Social Democrats?

The leader of the Christian Democrats Miroslav Kalousek, photo: CTK

Mr Gross certainly seems to think so. But he and the new leadership have quite a bit of work cut out for them. They not only vowed to get 30 percent of public support in the general elections next year but also vowed to stay in power until then. Public support for the party has been decreasing ever since the coalition crisis started and it will take much effort from Mr Gross and his team to get it up again. So the ball is now in the Christian Democrats' court. Should they back down and stay in the coalition, the Social Democrats stand a chance.

And what if they carry out their threat and leave the government?

Then there will be two possible developments. The opposition right-of-centre Civic Democrats have already announced that they would seize the opportunity to push for a vote of no confidence in the government, which they hope would be supported by the Christian Democrats, and followed by early elections. All opinion polls suggest that the Civic Democrats would win these elections. Alternatively the Social Democrats will struggle on with a minority government, with or without the third coalition partner Freedom Union, but relying heavily on the Communists.

How feasible is that? A minority government with the tacit support of the Communists?

Zdenek Skromach and Stanislav Gross, photo: CTK

Quite feasible. The idea is not as far fetched as it seemed a few weeks ago. Despite the fact that President Vaclav Klaus has rejected the idea of a minority government, the Social Democrats themselves seem increasingly amenable to the idea, although - at their Easter conference - they carefully avoided confronting the implications of that - i.e. that it would break the long-held party policy of rejecting all cooperation with the Communists. How they would be able to get round that conundrum is far from clear, especially given that Mr Gross noted in a leading newspaper on Tuesday that he would not allow his government to be in a situation when it could be blackmailed by the Communists. In such a case he could always resign, he said.

How confident do you think Mr Gross really is of his own future?

Well, he is refusing to speculate in public, but one thing is interesting - and could point to a lack of confidence. He is extremely keen to speed up the privatisation process of the country's biggest fixed-line operator Czech Telecom, and the implication of that is that he fears the opposition Civic Democrats could come to power earlier than planned, and scupper the current privatisation plans.