The weeks of uncertainty regarding the fate of the Czech coalition government are expected to come to an end this weekend. The embattled Prime Minister Stanislav Gross will fight for re-election as party leader at the Social Democratic party's conference, starting on Friday, and it is believed that the outcome of this vote will decide his future as Prime Minister.
Prime Minister Stanislav Gross, photo: CTK
Well, Dita less than two months ago when Mr. Gross toured the regions to rally support he had the backing of 11 out of 14 regions, but the scandal over his family finances, which has shaken the government in its foundations, has changed the situation radically. The party delegates know that if they continue to support Mr. Gross they will not be able to avoid early elections and so gradually his supporters have been turning away from him and leaning towards his rival Zdenek Skromach. On Tuesday the party leadership rejected the possibility of early elections and a dress-rehearsal vote on whom they'd prefer to see party leader put Zdenek Skromach ahead of Mr. Gross. Now, Stanislav Gross has made it fairly clear that if he fails to get re-elected party leader he will resign from the post of Prime Minister.
What would happen then?
Zdenek Skromach, photo: CTK
If the PM resigns, the entire government falls with him, which means that President Klaus would have to initiate talks on forming a new government. And it is noteworthy that on the eve of the Social Democrats conference President Klaus unexpectedly showed his hand - not something he does often- telling the press that if the government should fall he would commission a Social Democrat with the task of forming a new Cabinet, and that if he could produce a 101 vote majority in parliament he would swear the new Cabinet into office. This is something that had been unnerving the Social Democrats, because although it is the usual practice for the President to commission someone from the strongest political party with the task there is nothing to prevent him choosing someone from the other coalition parties. So President Klaus' statement was a signal of reassurance to the Social Democrats - you can sacrifice the problematic PM without losing your position. This is how the message has been interpreted by both commentators and politicians and Mr. Gross has responded to it in anger, saying that the President was trying to influence the outcome of the party conference.
What would happen if the party fails to sacrifice Stanislav Gross?
Well, that would be a suicidal tactic. Because it would either mean agreeing to early elections under pressure from their coalition partners the Christian Democrats or trying to find support for a minority government, which would not be easy and would mean relying on the Communist party. The opposition right wing Civic Democrats have said that if Mr. Gross remains in office they would initiate a vote of no-confidence in the Gross government next week.
