Will Civic Democrat leader Mirek Topolanek be prime minister in 2006?

Two years ago when Mirek Topolanek was first elected to head the country's main opposition party, the right-of-centre Civic Democrats, he was an untried entity. Many observers felt the Czech senator would have a difficult time filling the shoes of his well-known and charismatic predecessor Vaclav Klaus. But since then Mirek Topolanek has proven he's the man for the job, and from his perspective things have gone swimmingly. At least, so far.

Will Civic Democrat leader Mirek Topolanek be prime minister in 2006?

Mirek Topolanek, Photo: CTK

At the moment Mirek Topolanek is riding high: this year alone he has led the Civic Democrats to successful finishes in regional, Senate, and European elections - and he's promised more success ahead, all reasons why he was rewarded by his party at the weekend, when he was re-elected to the top party post. With a clear mandate he can now lead his party to national elections in less than two years' time, elections current polls suggest the Civic Democrats will win.

What have been the keys to his political success, given his rise to the top echelons of his party just two years ago? To find out we spoke with analyst Jan Urban, who says the Civic Democrats' leader has proven far more capable than many expected:

"He definitely came to the leader's position as a 'compromise solution'. Until his arrival the leadership positions within that party were identified or given only along the lines of loyalty towards our current president Vaclav Klaus, who was the founder of the party and the 'godfather' of its style. There was no particular chemistry between Topolanek and Klaus, and that was the main reason why his chances were rated as low. Nevertheless, Klaus became president and the party had to go on. And Topolanek has slowly but steadily proven that he is able to rule the party and to create a compromise atmosphere to fulfil the wishes of different groups."

If Topolanek has since overwhelming convinced party members he is the right man for the post - and more than 90 percent of delegates voted for him at the weekend party congress - his popularity among voters has also grown, thanks to what many perceive as a "common touch". Jan Urban points out that the Civic Democrat wants to come across as a man of the people, foregoing even the formal version of his name - Miroslav - for Mirek, like politicians "Tony" Blair and "Bill" Clinton. Even such seemingly "insignificant" details make him more accessible in the public eye.

Petr Necas, the newly elected Civic Democrat Vice Chairman, and Mirek Topolanek, Photo: CTK

"Absolutely! This is how his mum would call him when he was a young boy, and this is how he identifies himself as 'the man in the street'. The same would go for his frequent singing of folk songs - he comes from a very colourful region in northern Moravia famous for its folk songs and he likes to be photographed doing that. So, definitely, he's working on his image and he does so quite deliberately."

Finally, there is at least one other dominant element that has greatly benefited the Civic Democrat leader: an almost pathological internal strife and hand-wringing on the part of his opponents, the Social Democrats. He's been allowed to appear confident and uncompromising almost by default: and been handed the luxury of being able to practice zero tolerance towards the government while reaping the political rewards.

Under less favourable circumstances, observers like Jan Urban say, Mirek Topolanek might behave very differently, more inclined to compromise. But, under the current ones he can almost shrug the government aside, patiently preparing greater plans: to become prime minister in 2006.

"Under him the Civic Democratic Party has already begun preparing expert teams - two years ahead of elections - to take power and create programmes for each of the ministries, in order to be ready the minute his party is declared the victor in next elections."