Director of Oslo research institute tips Havel for Nobel Peace Prize
It's less than 24 hours to go before a much-anticipated announcement from the Norwegian capital Oslo: the winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize. There are a record 165 nominees this year, and among the favourites are Pope John Paul, the Brazilian President Lula da Silva and the former Czech President Vaclav Havel. Many believe the ailing Pope is virtually guaranteed to win, but not Stein Tonnesson, director of the Oslo-based International Peace Research Institute or PRIO. He's backing Mr Havel. So what does he know that we don't?
It's less than 24 hours to go before a much-anticipated announcement from the Norwegian capital Oslo: the winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize. There are a record 165 nominees this year, and among the favourites are Pope John Paul, the Brazilian President Lula da Silva and the former Czech President Vaclav Havel. Many believe the ailing Pope is virtually guaranteed to win, but not Stein Tonnesson, director of the Oslo-based International Peace Research Institute or PRIO. He's backing Mr Havel. So what does he know that we don't?
"PRIO is an independent research institute that does research on peace and conflict in Oslo. It's in no way related to the Nobel Institute, but we're located in the same city, so that's why we're asked every year to speculate about who's getting the Nobel Peace Prize."
And I gather your own predictions have been fairly accurate in the last four or five years.
"Oh, sometimes yes, but sometimes not. I was wrong last year."
You're tipping the former Czech President Vaclav Havel to win this year's Peace Prize. Why?
"First of all, he is a man of integrity who's been working for European integration. He let Slovakia go peacefully although he didn't really want it. And he has been a towering figure in Europe for a number of years. I think he's the kind of intellectual that the Committee would like to award the Prize to. He's not done something really spectacular in the last year, so I hold the Pope actually as a more courageous, interesting candidate this year. But I think there will be many predilections or views against the Pope too so I think probably the Committee will be more happy about agreeing on Vaclav Havel."
But of course the Pope is gravely ill, and many believe if the Prize is to be awarded to him, then this year is really the time to do it.
"Yes, because that's probably the last chance, while there will always be a possibility to award it to Vaclav Havel later. But there is also a chance it could be awarded to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is engaged now in extremely important business both with Iran, and they have been expelled from North Korea, and they were quite right about what they said about Iraq, so that's also an interesting prize possibility. And of course there can always be many dark horses that come up, because we never know who the nominees are."
I'm not sure if you're a betting man, but what kind of odds would you put on Mr Havel winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
"Hmm. Perhaps 1:3."
And for more about the International Peace Research Institute, see http://www.prio.no/
