Czech governing coalition weakened by departure of independent MP
The fragile balance of forces on the Czech political scene has tipped slightly in favour of the opposition parties, after Social Democrat renegade and later independent Michal Pohanka announced on Thursday that he was giving up his mandate in the lower house of Parliament. This is bad news for Prime Minister Topolánek’s shaky coalition government which now has just 96 certain votes in the lower house. Once Mr. Pohanka is replaced by an MP loyal to the Social Democrats the opposition will have 97 votes at its disposal.
“This latest incident kind of underlines the status quo that we have today – we have a minority government that does not have the means to push through legislation on its own but we also have a minority opposition that does not have the strength to bring down the government in a no-confidence vote. This leads to a situation where seven “independent” members of Parliament become a strategically important group within the Parliament and it all depends on them, on how many of them will decide to support the coalition and how many will swing the other way. Long-term it is quite unpredictable how they are going to behave. This situation makes it difficult for both the governing coalition and the opposition to move on anything, but of course it is much more complicated for the government because the government has to act – especially during the EU presidency. It has to show that it has support and is working effectively and if it should happen that the independents turn against it, then that could cause a major problem during the EU presidency.”
As you said there are key votes coming up – how will this affect the ratification of the Lisbon treaty and the radar for instance?
Well, the vote on the Lisbon treaty is likely to be less difficult than the vote on the radar. There are more deputies supporting the Lisbon treaty, some Civic Democrat members favour its ratification – they don’t want a vote until February- but that doesn’t change the fact that they are for it. So as far the Lisbon treaty is concerned Mr. Pohanka’s decision will not affect it, but the radar issue is much more sensitive. Mr. Pohanka was against the radar but he didn’t want to act against the Topolanek government and many commentators say that this is actually why Mr. Pohanka left Parliament. He was opposed to the radar but he didn’t want to rock the government’s boat. However the deputy who will replace Mr. Pohanka has already made it clear that she will vote against the radar. So the radar issue remains uncertain – how this will be resolved and whether it will be passed or not. ”
“My guess is that this status quo will be preserved for much longer than the EU presidency - until the next general elections in 2010. I don’t believe that after the presidency anything major will happen. It will be just one year to regular elections and a year ahead of elections no government would take any important steps. The whole political scene will be gearing up for the election battle ahead. So once the EU presidency comes to an end I think that the election campaign will start and last until June 2010 with no big changes either in the government or opposition camps.”
