Will Bém or an unknown challenger unseat embattled Civic Democrat leader?

Barely a day goes by without new speculation over Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek’s political future, threatened by his party’s dismal failure in mid-term elections. This month the right-of-centre Civic Democrats were trounced by the rival Social Democratic party in 13 regions, as well as in Senate elections, leading many to see Mr Topolánek’s days as head of the Civic Democrats as numbered. But who might replace him at the party’s congress in December and will he go without a fight?

Mirek Topolánek, photo: CTK

The Czech daily Mladá fronta Dnes as well as other sources have made clear the race to succeed Mirek Topolánek is on. In a poll the daily questioned 60 regional party officials and found growing support for potential challengers, although only some agreed to mention names. Many of those who did, backed Prague Mayor Pavel Bém, Number 2 in the party who has already confirmed he will run. Mr Bém is a long-time rival of Mr Topolánek’s and the two have exchanged heated words in recent weeks. The situation came to a head after the elections” Mr Bém compared the badly-beaten Civic Democrats to a ship drawing water and badly in need of a new course and captain. For his part, Mirek Topolánek, has more or less confirmed he will seek re-election, unless what he calls a better candidate can be found. Political analyst Vladimíra Dvořáková says that support between the different factions in the party remains difficult to gauge:

“Antagonism between the two has been on-going for some time. Mainly we can speak about Mr Topolánek’s faction, and the faction supporting Mr Bém, who is very much supported by the country’s president, the founder of the party. The success of either will depend on each one’s ability to communicate with regional leaders, the ability to prepare changes in the party’s politics. Maybe there will also be an unexpected challenger, someone who can reintegrate the party.”

Petr Bendl, Pavel Bém and Zdeněk Schwarz, photo: CTK

Other names could include outgoing regional governor of Central Bohemia, Petr Bendl and the popular outgoing governor of Moravia-Silesia Evžen Tošenovský, who haven’t decided - at least not yet. In the end, whoever runs and wins will certainly have their work cut out for them. It is even conceivable, although many might not bet on it, that Mr Topolánek could even hang on to the post of party leader. But worst for the party, say analysts, will be if he fails and the Civic Democrats split the roles of party leader and prime minister. Vladimíra Dvořáková again:

“This could happen and I think that this would not be a positive message for the party and even worse for the prime minister. Nowadays the prime minister has enough difficulty gaining a majority in Parliament, it is already very difficult to govern thanks to the close results of the 2006 elections. In that scenario there would be an official organised faction against Mr Topolánek from within his own party, weakening his position during the country’s upcoming EU presidency.”

Such an outcome could arguably prove damaging for the country at a time when strong leadership at the head of the EU has been called for to counter the ongoing financial crisis. On the other hand, it would play directly into the hands of at least some: namely euro-realists or sceptics like the country’s president, who has repeatedly questioned the real impact and significance of small states heading the European Union.