What are the implications of US change of direction on missile defence?
The Czech Republic and Poland were the centre of world attention on Thursday, when the United States announced that it was abandoning plans to place parts of an anti-missile shield in the two countries: specifically a rocket base in Poland linked to a radar base in the Czech Republic. Washington’s decision has dashed Czech and Polish hopes for special relations with their US allies. So, will the overhaul of America’s defence strategy lead to a rethink of Czech security policy? And should central and eastern European states fear a rise in Russia’s influence in the region?
Some believe the US overhaul of its anti-missile defence strategy is a step in the right direction; others fear it will fuel Russian ambitions in the region. A major rethink of US missile defence strategy in Europe means the Czech Republic will not be hosting an American radar base that was to be part of the system aimed at curbing a potential missile threat from Iran and other unstable states. Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Tomáš Pojar says the decision will have no immediate impact, but things could get more complicated in the long run.
“It has not had any immediate impact but we will see how the missile defence architecture – now reconfigured into a slightly different system – will develop and how the European space, including the Czech Republic, will be protected. So we will see. I think there is a chance that there will not be a decrease in security, rather an increase, but it will not be so easy.”
Russia has applauded Mr Obama’s move as a correct and brave decision. The new NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, also welcomed the shift. This makes the Czech and Polish governments’ support for the missile defence project stand out as isolated. But Mr Pojar says that Czechs have always wanted the system to be integrated within a NATO defence system.
“I’m not talking now about the Russian reaction but if you look at what NATO Secretary General said, it got spinned a little. He welcomed that it would be more deeply rooted in the NATO system. We have been pushing all the time that there must be a clear linkage to NATO. We have been proposing that for the last couple of years.”
For its part, Moscow said it wouldn’t position its missiles in Kaliningrad, which Russian officials had threatened to do in response to the anti-missile installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. But Czech supporters of missile defence fear that the decision will still lead to a stronger influence of Russia in the former Eastern Bloc. Mr Pojar says he hopes that no such thing will happen.
“Well, I hope American presence will not diminish. That’s my hope. I naturally think it does not have to diminish but there is no guarantee that US influence in this part of Europe will remain the same as it has been. For us, it’s important that there is American presence, and I don’t mean only troops, in Europe including in Central Europe, and I hope that the US will not be leaving this part of Europe.”
According to analyst Jiří Schneider from the Prague Security Studies Institute, whether or nor Moscow’s influence over its former vassals grows in future depends on these countries themselves.
“It depends on Central and Eastern Europe. We remain members of important organizations such as the EU and NATO, and it’s completely up to us whether out commitments and membership in these organizations brings to us. These benefits could materialize and this does not rely on the deployment of one element of missile defence, believe me.”
The issue of hosting an American radar base was a controversial one in the Czech Republic. Around 70 percent of Czechs opposed the project. Mr Schneider says that the lack of consensus among politicians could also complicate things for the future.
“They will have to face reality, and of course, the lack of consensus on this was one of the elements that could be used in Washington if favour of some flexible solutions which do not rely on exclusive and sometimes difficult negotiations with hosting countries.”
The US said a new and more efficient anti-missile system should replace the original project put forward by the Bush administration. It should involve NATO countries in a much broader context, and Deputy Foreign Minister Tomáš Pojar says that’s what Czechs should focus on.
“I think that the debate in the Czech Republic will have to be about protecting its territory. I nevertheless think this was the case even before this decision because there are some systems that will soon be obsolete and we’ll have to replace them. So that’s for a deep internal debate how exactly we’ll protect ourselves and how that’ll fit into the overall NATO framework.”
The Czech Republic is cooperating with the US on several other military projects, and Czech Foreign Minister Jan Kohout added a few new ideas on Friday – the US could send a Czech scientist to space on an American space shuttle. The US has not commented on the proposal yet, but one thing is certain: it will definitely cause much less consternation in Russia than an American radar base in central Bohemia.
