The Social Democrats'"crown prince" Stanislav Gross concedes he may vie for his party's leadership

Over the weekend, following calls of support from party members from his constituency in Central Bohemia, Interior Minister and Social Democrat deputy chairman Stanislav Gross admitted he might run against current party chairman and Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla for the reigns of his party's leadership next year. Calls for Mr Spidla's unseating have dogged the prime minister for over a year, but until now Stanislav Gross - long considered his party's crown prince - has backed away from any such challenge. Could that all be about to change? Jan Velinger has more.

The Social Democrats'"crown prince" Stanislav Gross concedes he may vie for his party's leadership

If indeed it comes down to a show-down it is one that is decidedly a long wayoff - no earlier than March 2005. Still, Interior Minister Stanislav Gross' weekend admission he might take on current chairman Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla, marks the first time Mr Gross has openly admitted he might run. He's been called-on to do so before, so what's changed? His party's plummet in popularity, says political analyst Vaclav Zak.

Stanislav Gross, photo: CTK

"I think that it's quite natural that people in the Social Democratic Party are feeling quite uneasy about the future, because, as you know, the Social Democrats are now third in the opinion polls, which is approximately half the popularity it had during the elections. In every country where Social Democratic parties are implementing social reforms - they have trouble. In Germany Chancellor Schroeder resigned from his post as leader of the Social Democratic Party. And I think that the present request to change the party leadership is a way to give people some hope that things will change. So I would see it as a natural development."

Of course it's well-known that since early in his career Mr Gross has been considered a kind of "great white hope" for his party - the crown prince - but until now he always resisted tipping his hand - never challenged the party leadership outright. Has the admission he may run - a year ahead of his party's convention - not come a bit soon?

"Well, I think that he would like to communicate that things will change, because, in my view in the reforms Mr Spidla is not very good at communicating with people the necessary changes, and Mr Gross is a talented communicator. So maybe he would like to announce before that change is possible."

If Mr Gross' announcement is any kind of a wake-up call for Mr Spidla - after all, speculation he was the next in line is nothing new - there has been question how Mr Spidla should react. Criticised by some commentators for being out of touch with reality, and out of touch with his own support base, at a time when voter preference is plummeting, Mr Spidla has so far said he was ready to face anyone at the next convention. However, says Vaclav Zak, Mr Spidla could face a real challenge unless he produces some results.

"I think Mr Spidla doesn't think in this way: Mr Spidla sees his task to reform the social state and reform the current Czech economy, in a way that there could be sustainable development. And he firmly believes he knows the right answers and he believes that after one year, at the party congress, he will be able to convince people his solutions were the best."

A year in politics can be an eternity, and a lot may change before the Social Democrats meet next March. One thing, though, is already certain: that if Mr Spidla can not turn his party's flagging fortunes around and do so soon, he'll have Mr Gross and perhaps others to contend with in "no time at all".