Slim chance of success for Civic Democrat vote of no-confidence
The main opposition Civic Democrats have finally launched their offensive against the centre-left government, unveiling plans to table a vote of no-confidence within days. Civic Democrat leader Mirek Topolanek told reporters on Monday that the government's policies were ruining the country's economy, political scene and international reputation, and it must be brought down as soon as possible. Fighting talk, but can it be translated into action?
On paper they do. The ruling coalition have just 101 seats in parliament; the Civic Democrats together with the Communists have 99. So if just two coalition MPs rebelled and voted with the opposition, the government would fall. In practice, however, things are quite different. For a start, one Communist MP is off sick this week, so if a vote is held in the next few days, the opposition would have a combined strength of just 98 seats, meaning they'd need three coalition MPs to join their ranks. That's not very likely.
But there are coalition MPs who are unhappy with their government's policies, and especially the package of public finance reforms.
There are, but it's highly unlikely they're willing to bring down the government over them. Even Josef Hojdar, the Social Democrat MP who threatened to vote against the reforms, is now saying he will support some of them, suggesting that the Civic Democrats can't even count on him during the vote of no-confidence. Remember also that the vote is an open ballot: each of the 101 coalition MPs will have to stand up before their colleagues and say whether or not the government should survive.
Right, so if the no-confidence vote is already doomed to fail, what's the point of it?
Well, nothing is certain of course. As one Social Democrat MP said on the radio this morning, the only certainty in life is death. There is a slim, let's say 5-10 percent chance the government could collapse. But it's highly unlikely. Even Civic Democrat leader Mirek Topolanek says there's just a 30 percent chance of success, so even he isn't very optimistic. In reality, the Civic Democrats are taking this move to remind voters that they exist and also to expose weaknesses in the coalition. And the Communists will support it for much the same reasons.
If the government does survive the no-confidence vote, will Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla be out of the woods so to speak?
No, not yet. I said earlier that rebel MPs like Josef Hojdar will refuse to support some of the public finance reforms. If others join him, and some of the reforms fail to go through, that will have a direct effect on next year's budget, which is due to be submitted to parliament in November. If, as a consequence, the budget deficit has to be raised even further, Mr Spidla could face a far more serious rebellion. So in November we could see the real battle for power begin. This is more of a prelude.
