Research reveals significant drop in young Czechs planning to have children
The proportion of young Czechs planning to have children in the next three years has significantly declined, with the sharpest drop among those in difficult economic situations. These findings are part of the ongoing ‘Contemporary Czech Family’ research project, a collaboration between Masaryk University in Brno and Charles University in Prague. I discussed these new outcomes and their implications with Martin Kreidl, head of the research team.
Can you share with us the key findings of your research? What were the most surprising trends that you have identified?
“So, recently we focused specifically on fertility intentions, that is how many people and in what time horizon plan to have children. This is obviously inspired by recent demographic developments in Czechia, where the number of children declined dramatically between 2021 and today.
“While in 2021 there were over 110,000 children born, last year it was around 90,000 children, and this year it looks like we are going to go down to some 80,000 to 83,000 children. So that's really a dramatic development, and we wanted to understand how this happened and what different socioeconomic factors and experiences played in that decline.
“So we asked people: Do you intend to have children or another child in the next three years? And if they said no, we also asked: Do you intend to have another child any time later? And from this we learned that between 2020 and 2022 the percentage of people who have short-term plans or parenthood declined quite significantly, by some 12 percentage points. Long-term plans declined as well, but not as much, so we interpret this as an indication that for some people this is really just postponement. So that's the main trend and the next question obviously is what is behind this.”
And this is of course something I wanted to ask you. What are the main factors influencing the decision about having children? Would you say it is more about finances, education, or is it something else?
“Well, parenthood today is a very complex and typically intimate decision and the decision is somewhat different for each person. However, there are some overall trends and I think it's useful to differentiate between long-term trends, which reflect changes in values and norms, and short-term developments, changes that occurred just between 2020 and 2022 or so.
“The long-term trends are well known, but we wanted to look specifically into the developments since 2020. And when looking into the data, it was apparent that socioeconomic factors, broadly speaking, play a very strong role in “stratifying” fertility intentions.
“Typically, people who are in economically vulnerable or uncertain positions report much higher declines in fertility intentions than people who are in more stable positions. This refers to education, incomes, but also housing.
“It was quite clear that people who are renting felt much more uncertain about the future. And for them, for instance, plans to have children in the short term declined by over 20 percentage points, which is really, from my perspective as a demographer, a rather dramatic decline over such a short period of time.”
Your study also shows a sharp drop in the number of childless young people who want children. My question is, do you think this is something temporary or is it a long-term decision?
“It could be, but for a significant proportion, this looks like a permanent change. You know, when we speak about fertility intentions, this is a one-way road. People who have plans for children do not always carry out those plans. Sometimes they postpone and postpone and postpone, and eventually they do not have children, for a variety of reasons.
“People who do not plan to have children do not revise those plans that frequently. So from positive plans to negative plans, there is quite a significant movement over the course of a life, but in the opposite direction, this does not happen.
“So presently, we think perhaps half of the decline in fertility plans could be temporary, and the other half, with most likelihood, is a rather permanent phenomenon.”
And finally, with the fertility rate dropping so significantly, what will be the consequences? What do you think will happen if these trends continue?
“This year, we are likely to hit the absolute bottom. If the prediction that we can make on data from January till September really materializes, with 83,000 children, we will be at the historical lowest point ever. And as that cohort ages, we will see that we have fewer children in kindergartens, fewer children at schools, and fewer people in the labour market.
“So it has implications for productivity, economically speaking. It has implications for societal infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals and everything else. And of course, there is the ratio of young people and old people in the population, which impacts pensions. So with low birth rates, the changes in other spheres of society could be quite dramatic.”
