Pundit predicts problems ahead for re-jigged cabinet

President Václav Klaus has welcomed the coalition agreement reached by the country’s three centre-right parties on Monday night in an effort to save the country’s pro-reform government. Speaking to journalists in the northern city of Liberec on Tuesday the president said he was ready to accept the proposed Cabinet changes and indicated that he himself had exerted no small effort in helping to break the deadlock. However the cosmetic government reshuffle has raised plenty of criticism and many commentators are skeptical regarding the coalition’s long-term chances of survival. Pundit Jiří Pehe says the agreement is a temporary truce enforced by circumstances.

Václav Klaus

“I think there were two reasons for reaching this agreement. One was the attitude of President Václav Klaus who really did not want this coalition to fall apart and by postponing his decision on the prime minister’s request for him to recall some of the ministers of the Public Affairs Party he basically created a situation where the parties had to find a solution somehow. And secondly, I think an immediate reason for this agreement was the STEM opinion poll published on the very day the agreement was reached according to which if elections were held at this point the leftist parties would win a constitutional majority in the lower house. So it is clear that the coalition – and individual coalition parties - really needed to prolong this situation because if the government fell apart and early elections were to take place all three coalition parties would be severely damaged.”

So the governing coalition is glued back together, if I may put it that way. But not everyone inside the three governing parties is absolutely happy with the deal, the prime minister himself has said there will be more personnel changes in the cabinet in the coming weeks and months. So how strong –or weak –has this left the government?

President Václav Klaus, Prime Minister Petr Nečas, Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, Interior Minister Radek John, photo: CTK

“Well, I think that the government is severely weakened because the coalition – I should say the individual coalition parties - accused each other of a great many things – from being corrupt to being a threat to democracy and so on, really serious charges which no one should take lightly and then an agreement was reached which on top of everything is not really a government reshuffle – at this point it is just one minister departing. That of course undermines the credibility of the government severely, because I think that the causes of this crisis – ie. the non-standard nature of the Public Affairs party and the influence of various groups behind the scenes – economic groups – those causes have not been addressed and resolved and I think the crisis will continue. This is perhaps just a truce but certainly the war will erupt again.”

How has the prime minister come out of this crisis?

Petr Nečas, photo: CTK

“I think that Petr Nečas has suffered the greatest damage in the coalition. He made a very strong gesture at the beginning of the crisis, submitted a request for the resignation of several ministers, he was rejected by the president and in the end he succumbed and he basically changed his mind and it makes him look as if he is really subordinated to the president and that of course is not good for any prime minister in a parliamentary democracy such as the Czech Republic where the prime minister should call the shots, so to speak.”

In an effort to explain the extent of the compromises made the prime minister said they had been made in the interest of pushing ahead with much needed reforms. Do you think the government has the strength to undertake those reforms?

“Well, certainly the government has the numbers to approve any reforms it wants, but I think there is a problem with the legitimacy of those reforms simply because it is very difficult to convince the public that far-reaching reforms which will influence people for maybe generations can be adopted by a coalition which is in disarray and does not consult its decisions with the opposition, so the legitimacy of the reforms is really very low and the leftist opposition will be in an excellent position if it wants to change or abolish those reforms when it comes to power.”

The government has seen a dramatic slump in public support in the wake of this crisis. Is there any way to repair the damage?

“I think the only way to repair the damage would be to work hard, to avoid any conflict in the ruling coalition, to pass the reforms and then convince the public that those reforms were actually beneficial. Unfortunately, I think that the underlying problem in the government and the roots of the crisis have not been really addressed and therefore I do not think that the coalition parties are capable of this and we will see –very soon – another crisis, so I am quite skeptical and I don’t have many hopes for this coalition government.”