Outgoing PM urges Civic Democrats to back Lisbon treaty

This Wednesday the Lisbon treaty, aimed at reforming the workings of the 27-member European Union, faces a key vote in the Czech Senate, one which has many in Brussels worried. Although observers remain optimistic, the Senate could potentially scuttle the document, amounting to a serious setback en par with last year’s No vote in the Irish referendum. Could it happen?

Mirek Topolánek, photo: CTK

Many view the Czech Senate’s rejecting the EU’s Lisbon treaty this Wednesday as “unlikely” but it could happen, one reason the outgoing Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek took no chances at the weekend. In a Czech TV news programme Sunday the prime minister, who steps down this week, urged senators within his own Civic Democratic Party to help pass the document or risk the Czech Republic being “sidelined in Europe” and warning of a growing influence by Russia. Here’s what he told journalist Václav Moravec on Czech TV:

“The different negatives and I am aware of them… are nothing compared to potential threats in the next five, ten or fifteen years. I want to be part of the European space and am willing to pay the cost. That is what I have been trying to get our senators to consider.”

The problem for Mr Topolánek is that when it comes to the Lisbon treaty, his party remains split on the issue, divided between a pro-European and eurosceptic wing - the latter largely influenced by the country’s president, Václav Klaus, an outspoken critic of the document. That has led to fears the treaty could fail in the Senate – a stumbling block en par with its rejection in the Irish referendum. Political analyst Bohumil Doležal:

“Many Czech politicians are incredibly selfish and act in their own interests – otherwise we could never have seen what we saw with Mr Paroubek bringing down the government in the middle of the Czech EU presidency. For many it’s a problem to reach any kind of compromise on anything that’s not ideal. I think that’s the case with the Lisbon treaty.”

At the same time, analyst Bohumil Doležal does think the necessary majority in the Senate will back the document in the end - but only just.

“I do think the treaty will pass, but only by the skin of its teeth. If it doesn’t? The treaty will be seriously threatened. Put it this way: there might not even be a need for a second Irish referendum: the Lisbon treaty could be dead and buried.”

Does Mirek Topolánek have enough remaining clout within his party to drum up support? Civic Democrat Senator Jiří Oberfalzer, who opposes the treaty, told the Czech media on Monday the prime minister had secured the necessary votes. But he also made clear that if it passes on Wednesday, it will not be the end of the matter. Some senators opposed to the document are likely to again put forward a complaint to the Constitutional Court. Such a move would throw a veritable wrench in the works, delaying or complicating the final approval of the document, which will also still need to be signed by the president.