Opposition to test government’s strength after upcoming Senate, local elections

In reaction to a recent scandal which hit the ruling Civic Democrats, the opposition Social Democrats are planning to call a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Topolanek’s centre- right government. The vote is expected to take place after the upcoming Senate and municipal elections which, the opposition believes, will deal the ruling coalition a death blow.

A recent scandal in which a junior Civic Democrat MP, Jan Morava, was ready to use staged photos to allegedly blackmail fellow MP and party rebel Vlastimil Tlustý has led the opposition Social Democrats to launch a plan to bring down the government. Head of the Social Democrat deputies’ group Michal Hašek told reporters on Saturday that his party wanted a police and parliamentary probe into the “Morava Affair”.

“We believe this is a first grade political scandal which comes close to some big scandals in Western Europe. We believe that besides a standard police investigation, which should commence as soon as possible, a parliamentary investigation commission should also be established.”

The Social Democrats are also planning to call a vote of no-confidence which should take place at one of Parliament’s November sessions – that is after the Senate and local elections which will be held in October. In the last two years, the opposition has made three unsuccessful attempts to bring down the government. Political analyst Petr Just believes that this time, their chances of success are better than ever.

“It’s no surprise that the Social Democrats came up with this proposal. This time the proposal has in fact a much higher chance, at least theoretically, of success. The current coalition parties cannot be sure that all their MPs will support the government. There are problems within the Green Party whose two MPs are considering whether to stay in their party’s deputies’ group. There might also be the problem of whether Vlastimil Tlustý and two other Civic Democrats, who stand behind him, will also support the government.”

Ivan Langer, photo: CTK

In the meantime, Civic Democrat leaders are doing everything to disassociate themselves from the two MPs – Jan Morava and Vlastimil Tlustý – whom they solely blame for the scandal. Interior Minister Ivan Langer even told Czech TV on Sunday that in case the lower house would hold a no-confidence vote, his party would not ask Mr Tlustý for support anymore.

“We would be acting as hypocrites if we said, ‘we denounce what MPs Tlustý and Morava did’ while, at the same time, we knelt down in front of Mr Tlustý asking him to support the government. What I’m saying for my own part is let the government fall rather than beg Mr Tlustý for support.”

Mirek Topolánek, photo: CTK

The success or failure of the coalition in the October elections is therefore going to be crucial in determining if the Czech government will survive and lead the country during the EU presidency, or if the Czech Republic will head for an early general election some time in 2009. Petr Just again.

“The Social Democrats expect that they will win the elections which will weaken Mr Topolánek’s government and that it will be another reason, another argument for expressing no-confidence in the cabinet. But on the other hand, if Mr Topolánek’s Civic Democrats and the coalition in general succeed in the election, it may have a diverse effect in that it will strengthen Mr Topolánek’s position and that of his party. It could in fact influence some MPs who are still considering how they will vote.”