Major budget cuts are a mainstay of the coalition government’s platform but there is one post-election scenario that could present a major problem for them. The left-wing opposition Social Democrats hope to win at least 12 of the 27 Senate seats being contested in elections this and next weekend. If that happens, the party would gain a majority in the upper house – and make it very hard for the coalition to meet its planned budget deficit for next year.
Photo: CTK
Getting the budget deficit down to 135 billion crowns has been a priority for this government, and part of the plan for doing that relies on 45 billion crowns being saved through budget cuts that would be valid as of January 1st. These include cuts to state subsidies for building loans, social welfare and cutting tax rebates for certain high-income entities – proposals that parties on the left are strongly opposed to.
The Social Democratic Party currently has 29 seats in the 80-member Senate. Should they win at least 12 seats in the Senate elections taking place this weekend and next weekend, then the right-wing majority falls in the upper house and the cuts can be vetoed – or rather, the Social Democrats have promised that they will be vetoed, and blocked for as long as possible.
Thus even the slimmest of majorities in the Senate would mean a big opportunity for the opposition to derail important legislation to which they are vehemently opposed, and it is one that the government has essentially handed them, because the reading of the legislation was scheduled for quite late in the year, on October 26. The bill was drawn up so as to be passed on a first reading. That could have happened if the opposition was willing to go along with it. However, the Social Democrat and Communist parties have promised to force a full three readings, saying they want every opportunity to express their views on the cuts. That means the coalition majority cannot pass the bill on to the Senate earlier than December 1. The Senate then has 30 days to deal with the legislation, and a Social Democratic majority will surely use every moment of that time, sending it back to the Chamber of Deputies with a veto at the very end of the month. That does not leave enough time for the veto to be overridden and so, in that case, the cuts could not be passed before the end of the year.
Miroslav Kalousek
Some coalition officials have shown various degrees of concern over the matter, saying it would present a major problem for tax administration next year if tax regulations to be passed for 2011 were to be stalled. But Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, who is one of the leaders of the TOP 09 party, says that it is still too soon to worry about what could happen after the elections. It is in any case another variable that adds no small amount of anticipation to the election outcome.
