Registration deadline for postal vote looming, numbers lower than expected
On October 3rd and 4th, Czechs will head to the polls in a parliamentary election. For the first time ever, Czech citizens based abroad will have the possibility to make use of the postal vote. However, the deadline to sign up is less than three weeks away and the number of registered voters comes way short of expectations.
When the Czech parliament passed the bill enabling the postal vote in August last year, reactions were mixed, and expectations were high. The Foreign Ministry anticipated 50 thousand registrations, some estimates had even pinned the number at 80 thousand, by the time registration closes on Sunday, August 24th.
Given the number of Czechs living abroad, anywhere between 400 and 600 thousand, that figure might not have seemed far-fetched. Yet, political scientist and commentator Lukáš Jelínek tempers the expectations:
“There might be hundreds of thousands of Czech expats living abroad, but a realistic expectation is that only several tens of thousands will take advantage of the postal vote. So far, 20 thousand compatriots have registered, and others have until August 24th to do so,” he says.
The official figures are in fact even less optimistic, citing a little over 17.6 thousand registrations. According to Jelínek, however, polemics over the increased size of the electorate mischaracterize the primary aim of the postal vote:
“Postal voting is not a tool to increase voter turnout, but simply to enhance civic comfort. If merchants, bankers, and other service providers care about our comfort, why shouldn't the state think similarly? Electronic elections are next up, once we are able to minimize the risks of conducting them,” he explains.
Getting acquainted with a new way of voting takes time. In Slovakia, only 7 thousand voters made use of the possibility of postal voting, when it was introduced in 2006. In the most recent elections two years ago, roughly 58 thousand Slovaks sent their ballots in by post. Jelínek says, that doubts about the reliability of postal voting are simply a part of the process:
“It will take some time before we gain full confidence in postal voting. The main downside is the weakening of the element of secret voting, although this can also be a problem when voting inside of the Czech Republic. For example, if one family member prepares ballots for the others,” the political scientist points out.
The postal vote bill initially drew a great deal of criticism from opposition leaders. ANO party member Radek Vondráček labelled it an “attempt to sidestep the existing systems of electoral supervision”. Freedom and Direct Democracy Party (SPD) leader Tomio Okamura even spoke of an “attack on the freedom and legitimacy of elections”, reminding the example of France, which abolished postal voting in 1970.
In a recent poll by STEM Institute, 60% of respondents expressed a belief that the postal vote will lead to more election fraud, particularly on behalf of the exiting government. Regardless, opposition parties now seem to have eased up on the idea of a postal vote. Jelínek claims this primarily has to do with shifting preferences of foreign-based voters:
“In the past, votes from abroad mainly went to right-wing parties. Parties which focused on individualism thrived abroad, and their anti-communist sentiment also played a role. But times have changed. The current opposition can now benefit from the clash between conservatives and liberals, or, if you prefer, traditionalists and progressives, both at home and abroad,” he says.
The latest STEM poll released on Sunday shows Andrej Babiš’s opposition party ANO firmly in the lead with a projected 31.5% of the vote. The SPOLU coalition of Prime Minister Petr Fiala trails in second, with 20.8% of the vote predicted to go their way.
Whilst the election is expected to cause a major shake-up in the composition of the lower house, the role played by postal votes should be relatively limited. Jelínek nonetheless reminds, that there remains a good reason, both for Czech expats and domestic political parties, to be invested in the postal vote:
“It is naive to expect that the postal option will have any significant impact on the total score in October. However, the results may be close, and then the weight of votes delivered from abroad would also increase. Therefore, it makes sense for all parties to keep a very close eye on voting abroad,” he explains.
Votes from abroad are conventionally allocated a region within Czechia from which they can choose their candidates. This year, the foreign vote will be split into four global macro-regions, which will vote respectively for the lists running in the Prague, Central Bohemian, Moravian-Silesian, and South Moravian regions.
The push for a postal vote option was in large part driven by the initiatives of Czech expats living abroad. ‘Volím domů’ is one of them. Their website, volimdomu.cz, now provides instructions on how to register. More information can also be found at korespondencnivolba.info, and the official website of the Foreign Ministry.
