Could fortune be smiling once again on the Social Democrats?

The largest party in the Czech government, the Social Democrats have not had many reasons to be happy in recent months. Because of widespread disillusion with their policies and a series of political scandals, their preferences have dropped rapidly from the 30 percent they gained in the last elections three years ago, to only 10 percent in April this year. But the latest opinion polls suggest that the Social Democrats' popularity is on the rise again, with a more than six percent jump in less than two months. What is behind this sudden change of fortune? Is it just thanks to the new Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek? Martin Mikule called political analyst Vaclav Zak to ask him about his view.

"I would say that we have a relatively stable political system in our country. So the parties have clear identities. Since the Social Democratic Party had great problems with its leaders, it could have been expected that, when the situation is more stable, the preferences of the Social Democratic Party would rise."

To what extent is it thanks to Prime Minister Paroubek? He is not a charismatic leader, is he?

"I would say that an average voter is content with such a leader. He plays the strong hand, he tries to put President Klaus into his proper position. Czech people like it if the leader is strong...So I think Mr. Paroubek has a great merit in this increase."

Do you expect the preferences of the Social Democrats to keep on rising?

"It's a difficult question. Already this increase of six percent was great. So I would say that it is possible. I think that the Social Democratic Party could return to some 20 percent of preferences but I think to go above that would be difficult."

What do you think about the position of Mr. Paroubek? He is the prime minister but he is not the chairman of the Social Democrats. Do you think that the fact that the preferences of the Social Democrats are rising can help him to become the leader of the party as well?

"I would guess so. Part of the solution of the government crisis was that Mr. Gross would not be the party leader for the next election. It had been planned long before that change at the post of the prime minister took place. Mr. Gross had those difficulties and the public will probably not forget it in the near future. So I think Mr. Paroubek is very likely to become the party leader for the next elections, and maybe even the chairman of the party. But the next congress of the Social Democratic Party to elect its new chairman will not take place for another two years, so I think Mr. Paroubek will now become only the election campaign leader."