Embattled PM announces cabinet re-shuffle and says he’ll fight his adversaries

Bolstered by a successful meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek came home in fighting spirit, saying he was planning to make personnel changes in the coalition government, push ahead with reforms and run for re-election as Civic Democrat leader at the party’s conference in December. But with party opponents snapping at his heels, is the prime minister strong enough to put his own party - and the governing coalition - back on track? Political analyst Jiří Pehe:

Mirek Topolánek, photo: CTK

“I think that Mr. Topolánek has a good chance of getting re-elected, but even if he is re-elected his party opponents will not go away and since his opponents are tied to the powerful group of people around President Klaus that is a problem for his party. At this point I think that the only solution for the Civic Democratic Party would be to elect a third person – someone who would be able to unite the party - and whom the two rivals, Mr. Bém and Mr. Topolánek, could both support. But if one of them prevails then I think the Civic Democratic Party will have serious problems.”

Now, Mirek Topolánek is clearly determined to put up a fight for both his posts – that of party leader and prime minister – indeed, as prime minister he is determined to push ahead with planned reforms. But in view of the sorry state of the party and the number of rebels in the governing coalition can he hope to achieve that?

“I am afraid that his words about continuing the reforms are just a pipe dream. He obviously has to maintain that line because otherwise his government would not make any sense. But it is clear that even in the current constellation he would have problems pushing ahead with reforms. If he prevails at the party conference at the cost of splitting the party or creating an even stronger opposition than he is facing now, then of course he will be a totally lame duck.”

The prime minister says he is planning to make changes in the government – is it not too late for that – can he still save his neck and his coalition government by doing so?

“Replacing a few ministers may help Mr. Topolánek’s government simply because there are some very unpopular personalities in his cabinet, but I am not sure that it will help the Civic Democratic Party if it were to remain split and I am also not sure that replacing a few ministers will do anything for the government’s ability to push ahead with reforms. So yes, Mr. Topolánek may survive as prime minister and perhaps the government may earn a few points with the voters but that does not mean that the party will not suffer another defeat in the elections to the European Parliament in June and that it will not go to the parliamentary elections in 2010 greatly weakened.”