Civic Democrat leader gains momentum ahead of party congress

Just over a month ago, Mirek Topolanek’s future as the chairman of the Civic Democratic Party appeared fairly shaky, with the leader himself expressing doubt over whether he would ultimately stay on. But, since, the situation has slowly shifted in his favour. Mr Topolánek has now gathered support from seven regional assemblies compared to challenger Prague Mayor Pavel Bém’s 0. And while nothing has been decided yet, going into the party’s congress it appears the incumbent has the edge.

Mirek Topolánek and Pavel Bém, photo: CTK

A month ago Mirek Topolánek was on the political ropes, bruised and bloodied by his party’s poor finish in regional and Senate elections. But with less than a week before the Civic Democrats’ congress, he appears to have regained lost ground. Seven regional assemblies have backed him over his rival, while Mr Bém has not been able to secure any support and his bid to lead the party now seems headed for defeat. Some observers have criticised the Prague mayor for offering little in terms of new party direction other than a late – if crucial - shift: he said last week that he would prefer a minority Civic Democrat government to the current coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Greens. Mr Topolánek, by contrast, wants to stay the course, not least because the Czech Republic will soon take up the EU presidency.

Bohumil Doležal, a leading political analyst, explains some of the factors that he thinks have strengthened Mr Topolánek:

Mr Doležal and others have suggested that the country’s president, Václav Klaus, long at odds with Mr Topolánek, has complicated matters. Unhappy over the Civic Democrats’ direction, he warned he might leave the party he founded, in favour of a new party closer to his political ideals: one that is far more EU-sceptical and openly against “Lisbon”. That suggestion, Bohumil Doležal says, has only hurt Mr Bém:

“Mr Klaus basically chose him as a close ally and that has hurt [the challenger]. Mr Bém hasn’t expressed much more than loyalty to the president and otherwise has had precious little in terms of new ideas other than an ambiguous promise to return the Civic Democratic Party to its original roots. I don’t think that idea has proven to be very popular.”

If Mirek Topolánek does defeat Prague Mayor Pavel Bém at the weekend, it won’t mean the end of his political worries. Not by a long shot. He is likely face further dissent from within his party’s rebellious wing and still more criticism from the country’s president. Ultimately, if some euro-sceptical Civic Democrat MPs do leave the party for another, that will only further weaken an already shaky government, leading some to believe the current coalition won’t last much longer than the EU presidency.