Russia cuts off gas supplies to Europe

Early on Wednesday, Russian supplies of natural gas to Europe were completely cut off as a pricing and debt row between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Several European countries more dependant on Russian gas than the Czech Republic have found themselves in deep trouble, amongst them Slovakia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Croatia, Hungary and Greece. Worst hit appears to be Serbia, which has declared its situation as critical. Dominik Jun spoke with Oldřich Bureš, an expert on Russian affairs and began by asking him to comment on what he believes is behind this cut-off:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (left) and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, photo: CTK

“Well, it is difficult to dissect exactly where the truth is. It is hard to say whether Ukrainians are really stealing all of the gas or whether the Russians are not sending any gas. Obviously now, when there is no gas flowing at all, then it is clear that the Russians must have completely turned off the gas supply. Otherwise, I would say that the Czech Republic and Europe as a whole have been sort of taken hostage by this feud between Ukraine and Russia about gas prices, but also essentially I would say that politics are always involved and the dispute about whether the Ukraine should be leaning more pro-Russia or pro-Western is what lies hidden behind this commercial dispute.”

So it is unclear whether it is Russia that has switched of the gas or Ukraine? Russia hasn’t made any official pronouncement that it is behind the switch-off?

“Since there is no gas flowing at all, I assume that Russia must have switched off the supplies. So now I think that it is obvious, even though I haven’t read anything in the news that Russians have officially admitted to that. Before, as long as there was at least some gas flowing, there was always the possibility for the Russians to blame Ukraine and accuse it of siphoning off gas that was bound for Europe, in effect stealing this gas, which the Ukrainians always denied. Until yesterday it wasn’t clear, but now it is clear that Russia has simply turned off the pipeline.”

Photo: CTK

So what can the Russian objectives be here? Obviously there is anger in Europe at this move, and it would seem that Russia is further alienating Europe by doing this…

“The official explanation is that Ukraine has not agreed on a new contract in which the Russians wanted to increase the price. And therefore since they simply decided that there is no contract, Ukraine should be paying the full market price, which Ukraine has refused. Therefore Russia refuses to send gas to Ukraine. It is also true that Ukraine even when they had a functioning contract, were paying late, so they had substantial debts. Otherwise, I would say that with the relations of Ukraine and Russia, and the internal politics in both countries, particularly relating to the future orientation of a former Soviet Republic – and one of the biggest – Russia clearly has a substantial interest in keeping it more Russian than it has been since the Orange Revolution.”

Czech president Václav Klaus meets with Russian Ambassador Alexei Fedotov, photo: CTK

Slovakia has lodged a formal protest to Moscow and also the Czech president Václav Klaus is set to meet with the Russian Ambassador, so what kind of leverage do the Czechs have in this matter?

“The Czechs have the leverage of holding the EU presidency, so they have leverage so long as they can speak on behalf of Europe. The problem with this leverage is that for a long time, Europe has failed to have a united security policy or energy security policy. And if Europe was able to act in concert, they would have a strong voice in enabling Russia to see that this is a strong market that they cannot afford to lose. But even now, we can see that the Balkans have been strongly hit – they basically have no gas, Slovakia has been hit substantially. The Czech Republic is a little better off and then the farther west we go, shall we say, the less immediate concern there is. And while there is solidarity, there is not a sense of urgency. This experience may be helping to push the EU to consider alternative pipelines in the long-run, but it will remain difficult to have a common united front in Europe. But in general, I think the Czech Republic should take advantage of the fact that we are chairing the presidency and one of the stated priorities is energy security. Thus, we should make the most out of this opportunity and use as much leverage against Russia as we can.”