Swine flu perceived as bigger threat than previously thought

The H1N1 virus continues to spread through the Czech Republic with three regions now battling an epidemic. The Czech health authorities reported on Thursday that the death toll had risen to 8, with close to 800 cases registered. It has also become clear that the swine flu is a more serious threat than previously thought.

Roman Prymula, photo: David Němec, Czech Radio

The message to the public just a few weeks ago was that, although highly contagious, the H1N1 virus was no worse than getting the seasonal flu. Now the health authorities are clearly revising that stand. The course of the pandemic has shown the swine flu virus is becoming more aggressive and resulting in more complications and deaths than regular flu. The head of the Czech Immunology Society Roman Prymula says the virus is almost certain to mutate in one way or another.

“There are two possibilities - one of those mutations is that people will develop a resistance to the antivirus – particularly Tamiflu – and the second is that we will have a more serious disease to combat- which seems to be happening now. It is necessary to monitor the situation very carefully – in some countries we already have clusters of deaths and clusters of more serious cases.”

Photo: CTK

Although earlier findings suggested that young people are more susceptible to the virus, as the pandemic spreads, it has become clear that other groups are equally at risk, pregnant women, obese people and older, chronically ill patients. To make matters worse, a vast number of those eligible to get a swine-flu shot in the Czech Republic are refusing the offer for fear of possible side effects. In the Zlín region 56 out of 73 doctors refused the vaccine saying that it had not been properly tested and criticized the ministry for starting the vaccination process when an epidemic was already rampant in various parts of the country. Many chronic patients are following their example, despite a constant stream of reassurances from the Health Ministry. Prof. Prymula says this behaviour poses an extreme risk.

“This is definitely very dangerous and I should say that the situation is not really under control because there is so much unofficial information spreading among the general public which then does things which are not in concordance with official policy. We have refusals even among physicians and the Chamber of Physicians in the Czech Republic plays a negative role saying “we are not guinea pigs and maybe we should wait to get more data about the safety of the vaccine”. But I think that we now have very reliable data from around the globe, particularly from Sweden, based on 2.1 million dozes of the vaccine already used and I think that the vaccine is pretty safe. We definitely have information about some side effects around the globe but they are very moderate I should say.”

Photo: CTK

Those who are hoping the epidemic will recede with the arrival of spring may be sorely disappointed. Prof. Prymula says an epidemic usually circulates and is likely to come in two waves –which may last for up to a year and a half. If the H1N1 virus should mutate in the course of that time, the second wave would prove far more deadly than the first.