Poll suggests major shift by Czechs towards EU as referendum date approaches

The results of an opinion poll released by the Stem agency in Prague have shown a startling jump in Czech support for EU accession - almost 80 percent in favour - an incredible difference with the mere 49 percent touted by some agencies less than half a year ago. Have Czechs really had a sudden change of heart? Radio Prague spoke to the Stem agency's Jitka Uhrova to find out:

Photo: CTK

"The Czech citizens now, in majority, support accession to the European Union, and now this number is slightly increasing. Of the people stating they would participate in the referendum, 79 percent say they would vote for EU accession."

How do you explain this large jump, because it was under 50 percent not that long ago...

"In our surveys it wasn't under this number - in our surveys this number is almost stable, not changing a lot, and now we think that the referendum is very close and the people know it..."

The fact that the referendum is nearing is a factor...

"Yes."

You say that your numbers, from the Stem agency, have been fairly stable, however, the CVVM agency has recorded lower levels of support. Do you attribute that to a different system of polling or a different type of questioning?

"Yes, I think the second point is right. It's a different style of questioning because we have a lower percentage of people who are 'not decided'. If you have three possible answers 'For', 'Against', or 'Undecided', the group of undecided is about a third of the population, so it is not a lot."

The fact that in this latest poll you asked 'Yes' or 'No' and didn't leave room for 'Undecided' - that could influence the higher number of positive answers?

"Yes. "

What is the situation when you look more closely at the undecided - what are the numbers in that situation?

"As I said that group is about a third of the population, and we can't say at the moment how this group will decide. It's impossible to say because if we ask this 'Undecided' only 'Yes' or 'No' - 50 percent would vote for and 50 percent against."

In one of today's major dailies you are quoted as saying that we have to be careful on how we interpret these numbers and not be 'overly optimistic', because it's also a matter of who actually comes to the referendum itself. For example, anti-EU voters within Communist Party ranks have shown in the past to be very vigilant, so that could also influence final results.

"Yes, that's right, because participation is not sure, we have no experience with this, and if voter turnout is low the result is always uncertain."