Hungary after Orbán: What to expect from Péter Magyar
Péter Magyar’s resounding victory in Hungary’s general elections –and the pending change-of-guard after Orbán’s 16 years in office - poses many questions. Is this a political reset –or just a new face? Who is Péter Magyar and what can Europe expect from Hungary’s incoming prime minister? Those are some of the questions I put to Viktor Daněk, deputy director of the Europeum Institute.
“Well, I think the expectations are really high, especially in Brussels, but also in many other European capitals, because many leaders were quite fed up, I would say, with Viktor Orbán, with his very destructive style of politics. He was quite a tough opponent. He did not hesitate to use the power of veto whenever he could, especially in cases of issues that were of strategic importance, such as the enlargement policy, security policy, and so on. So the expectations are that Péter Magyar will be a different type of politician. But I'm afraid that many of those expectations are sugarcoating the reality a bit, because in many aspects Péter Magyar is actually not going to be so much different compared to Viktor Orbán. He has similar opinions on a number of issues, from migration to security, to Ukraine especially. And there, I think, there is no basis for a rapid turnover of attitudes towards Ukraine in Hungary.”
So the EU may be in for a surprise in some areas?
“I think so, yes. Péter Magyar is promising that he will normalize relations between Budapest and Brussels. The relationship is “halted” at the moment, especially because of the democratic backsliding in Hungary. Péter Magyar is promising to introduce a lot of reforms, and it seems that with the constitutional majority, he will be able to do so. He promised it again in his victory speech, so the expectations are quite high in this area. And I think, in this case, they are actually well-grounded, because Péter Magyar promised to unlock frozen finances - frozen because of Orbán's policies in the past. But when it comes to other issues, such as potential Ukrainian membership in the EU, then I think many will be surprised how hard an opponent Peter Magyar is going to be.”
And he may play the nationalist note..
“He will definitely play the nationalist note. He needs to work with the sentiment of the Hungarian population. If you look at the data, two-thirds of Hungarians actually oppose Ukrainian membership in the EU. And he is quite conservative in many aspects. So even though he is promising to make Hungary a liberal democracy, it doesn't mean that the new government is going to be really like a liberal government or progressive government. I think it's actually going to be quite the contrary.”
The Czech ruling coalition openly backed Viktor Orbán in these elections. So how may Magyar's victory affect bilateral ties?
“Yes, the current government supported Viktor Orbán. Andrei Babiš is a very close ally of Viktor Orban. Together they founded Patriots for Europe, the new pan-European party. However, Andrei Babiš was quite hesitant to actually personally appear in the election campaign in Hungary and he did not do so in the end. So I think he was a little bit strategic in this regard, also taking into account the sentiment of Czech people who have quite low confidence in Viktor Orbán. Viktor Orbán is among the leaders who have the lowest trust rating among Czechs, with just 22% of people polled saying they have confidence in him. So I think he was a little bit strategic in this matter. It is, of course, a big loss for Andrei Babiš because he's going to lose an important ally in the European Council. He's going to actually be the only Patriot for Europe sitting around the table with other leaders.
However, I think that Andrei Babiš always was and is a pragmatic type of politician and he will, I think, maintain a very correct, standard relationship with the new Hungarian prime minister. Especially given the overlap in opinions on many topics, again, ranging from migration to security issues and even to finances, which is going to be probably the most important decision that both leaders will need to make.”
Péter Magyar has already said that he wants to revitalize and consolidate the Visegrad Group, which is something that the Czech ruling coalition is also seeking to do. Is it possible at this stage?
“The Visegrad Group has been in a coma, basically, over the past couple of years, especially because of the war in Ukraine and because of Viktor Orbán's position on the issue. Now, with Peter Magyar's accession to power, this might change. He wants to revive the V4, but we'll have to see how it evolves. He will definitely have a very good relationship with Poland. He even announced that his first foreign trip as prime minister will be to Warsaw. But there are two other leaders in the Visegrad Group, namely Andrei Babiš and Robert Fico, who have a bit of a different attitude. So it might become something like a 2 plus 2 scenario, with maybe Slovakia and Czechia on one side and Poland and Hungary on the other. But in some cases, common topics might actually bind them together. We saw this in the past. The V4 was always strong in instances where there was a strong common topic that brought the leaders together. So there's going to be an opportunity. Maybe such as in the area of migration, or with negotiation of the next multi-annual financial framework, maybe the V4 will actually revive its former glory, at least in the eyes of some. But I would be skeptical that something like that which we saw in the past, such as in 2015, that something like this would be possible.”
Péter Magyar said he wanted close cooperation with all neighbors, but he said that there were still some open issues with some of them. For instance in connection with Slovakia, he mentioned the Hungarian minority and the Beneš Decrees. Does Hungary have issues with the Czech Republic?
“Well, the issue of the Beneš Decrees might be potentially sensitive, and we'll have to see how serious he is about the argument that he wants to resolve all the past disputes that are still there. If he is going to decide that this has a priority, it could actually harm the relationship in some regards. If he is going to decide that he wants to have more pragmatic and constructive relationships, then he will need to put aside some of those issues. So in this regard, I think we will have to wait a bit. But it's quite interesting that he changed strategy towards, for example, Hungarian minorities living abroad, from the days of the former Austria-Hungarian Empire, because the previous opposition was quite strictly against, for example, the policy of giving out citizenships. Peter Magyar was, on the contrary, quite open to this. He even campaigned in Romania and among Hungarian minorities in other countries. So I think it's going to be very interesting to see how different, or not different, he will be compared to Viktor Orbán.”
He also mentioned the idea that he would like to expand the Visegrad Group to other countries in the region. Is this viable? Would it work?
“This is not a new idea. Ideas like this were pondered in the past on many occasions and never came to any practical fruition. The situation might change in the future with new leaders that might have potentially close opinions to those of the V4, but I don't think it is realistic to expect that the composition of the V4 will change anytime soon. I think it's quite unlikely that it will change. However, it might be quite possible that there will be instances where other leaders might be invited on an informal basis to participate in some meetings. There are still quite interesting elections ahead of us, one being in Slovenia with Janez Jansa potentially returning to power. He might be a potential ally. So we'll have to see. I can imagine instances where V4 on an informal basis might be enlarged, let's say, but formally definitely not.”
How would that go together with EU cooperation, with the working of the EU?
“Well, regional cooperation is quite a normal thing to do. In the EU, countries naturally create groups to make them more visible and stronger. So this is something that other leaders are quite used to working with. The V4, it needs to be said, has quite a toxic labeling from the past, where it was often not behaving very constructively. It was opposing some of the policies, especially in the area of migration, but never proposing any alternative. So the image was quite damaging for some of the countries in the region. But I think this is something that happened a long time ago.”
That's what I meant, whether it wouldn't be seen as an effort to basically increase the clout of this region, which could potentially complicate decision-making in the EU.
“I don't think so. I think the context has changed a lot in many areas, especially in migration. We see that opinions of V4 countries that were quite isolated in the past are actually now becoming the mainstream. So the division is definitely not that deep as it used to be. I think actually on many occasions it would be quite easy for the V4 countries to cooperate with other nations. Member states such as Germany or Denmark or others that have also quite strong opposing opinions on migration, for example.”
Related
-
Prague meeting highlights Czech–Hungarian alignment on migration, war and V4
The Czech and Hungarian foreign ministers met in Prague, stressing shared positions on migration, energy and war, while differing from parts of the EU on diplomacy.
