Government crisis: time is running out

The Czech government crisis continues. Recent days have seen a marathon of talks, both between the three parties in the government and within the parties themselves. But progress in finding a resolution to the row that broke out two weeks ago when the Christian Democrats called on Prime Minister Stanislav Gross to resign over his family's personal finances, has amounted to next to nothing. I'm joined by David Vaughan. Has there been any progress at all?

Prime Minister Stanislav Gross, photo: CTK

"Very little. The main change is that the possibility of saving the government in its current form has become increasingly unlikely. Both the Christian Democrats and Mr Gross's Social Democrats have dug in their heals, and they've tended to come out of each meeting with a similar message: that there's been no progress, no compromise, but that they are still willing to talk and do want to give the current government a chance to survive. Each time that happens, the real chances of such an agreement being reached seem slimmer."

But on Wednesday I gather that the prime minister did for the first time acknowledge the possibility of resigning, which is what the Christian Democrats have been calling for all along...

The Christian Democrat leader Miroslav Kalousek, photo: CTK

"Yes, the broader Social Democratic leadership - that's just under two hundred top party people from across the country - will be meeting on Saturday, and Mr Gross has said that if they don't convincingly confirm their support for him, he will stand down, giving someone else the chance to lead the current government. I think that this is a strategic move, because Mr Gross is counting on his party giving him overwhelming support, and this will then lead to pressure being put on the Christian Democrats to tone down their demands for him to go."

By coincidence the French finance minister Herve Gaymard resigned last week over a row involving his state-financed luxury apartment. Parallels have been drawn with the case of Mr Gross's own flat. Has this case had any influence on the row here in the Czech Republic?

"Mr Gross's critics argue that the French case sets an example, and that the Czech PM should realize that the time has come for him to fall on his sword with dignity, but Mr Gross himself says that the two cases are completely different. While Mr Gaymard was living in a luxury flat at the taxpayer's expense, his own attempts at finding ways of financing his flat were an example of the very opposite - by buying his own apartment, he says, he was trying to make himself financially independent of the state."

The French finance minister Herve Gaymard, photo: CTK

What influence has the whole business had on public opinion?

"Recent polls suggest that opinion is fairly evenly divided. For example in a poll carried out by the paper Pravo, around 42 percent said that they'd like the current government to continue, but a very slightly lower number said that they would prefer the option of early elections."

And do early elections seem likely?

"I think they are the most probable outcome in the end. Of course it is possible that Mr Gross will sacrifice himself for the sake of his party staying in power, and there is also the possibility that Mr Gross will do what even some in his own party are suggesting - and make some sort of public apology for his messy domestic financial affairs. This would create some space for the Christian Democrats to come up with an offer of compromise. But of course it would involve some loss of face for Mr Gross, and he's made it clear he doesn't want to give the impression of caving in under pressure. Another possibility, albeit increasingly unlikely is that Mr Gross will manage to put together a credible minority government. But on Wednesday, for example, an aide close to Mr Gross ruled out the possibility of the prime minister accepting a solution that would rely on the support of the communists. So Mr Gross's room for manoeuvre is shrinking fast."