Demographers ringing alarm bells: Czech birth rate falls to lowest level since 1785

Demographers are ringing alarm bells –Czechs are slowly dying out. The birth rate has been steadily declining and last year it reached its lowest level in 240 years.

Demographic charts tell the story at first glance –with a steep downward curve. In the past few years the birth rate has been dropping lower and lower. In 2021, Czechia registered around 110,000 newborns. Last year, the figure fell to 77,600.

Tomáš Kostelecký from the Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences explains that the trend is driven by a combination of factors.

Tomáš Kostelecký|Photo: Kateřina Cibulka, Czech Radio

“I think it’s a mix of two things. First, fertility has declined, meaning that the average number of children per woman has gone down. At the same time, we have fewer women in the age groups that typically have children. For example, there are about 70,000 women aged 35, compared to just 50,000 aged 25. That’s a big difference, and the decline is dramatic. The number of births naturally mirrors the sharp drop in the number of potential mothers,” he says.

According to demographers, the slide in the birth rate is also linked to what they describe as a period of overlapping crises from which the country has not yet fully recovered. Demographer Eva Waldaufová points to a series of destabilizing events.

“It started with the COVID crisis, followed by the war in Ukraine, then further uncertainty, the energy crisis, high inflation, and so on. This period of uncertainty keeps growing, and that naturally affects the reproductive decisions of younger people. While it’s not the only factor, it is certainly a very significant one,” she says.

Another issue, experts warn, is the “notches” in the age structure of the population. These gaps will follow generations throughout their lives. While they currently affect maternity wards due to fewer births, they will in time shift to kindergartens and schools, and eventually to the labor market — where workforce shortages and population ageing will intensify.

Eva Waldaufová|Photo: Kateřina Cibulka, Czech Radio

A stable population requires at least 2.1 children per woman. In the Czech Republic, the figure now stands at 1.37. Eva Waldaufová says that although many young Czechs say they want to have children one day –for many the right time slips by.

“The drive to be successful and the hurdles that parenthood presents appear to be off-putting. Having a child is a big financial burden and a big responsibility. People hear so much about what it takes to be a good parent, what it costs to put children through school. So they focus on getting an education and building a successful career. At 25 they are told it is too early to have a child and when they hit 30 they hear its high time, but by then they need to have achieved so much –including having a home and finding the right partner –that is often a problem as well.”

Despite the natural population decline — with more deaths than births — overall population numbers are still slowly increasing and approaching 11 million. This growth is driven by foreign migration, particularly from Ukraine and Slovakia.

READ ALSO

Why aren't Czechs having more children?

Nearly one in ten children born in the Czech Republic last year were born to foreign nationals, and the share is rising. Around 17 percent of newborns had at least one foreign parent.

Could migration significantly help resolve the demographic problem? Sociologist Tomáš Kostelecký is skeptical.

“The population of Czechs has been declining for quite some time. The upward population curve is being assisted by immigration. However, the migrants coming here are not from countries with high birth rates. Slovaks or Ukrainians who move here do not have more children than Czechs — if anything, they may have fewer. So in this respect, there is no major difference,” he says.

In the past few decades governments left and right of centre have pledged to address the issue and support a higher birth rate. So far with little success.