From “dark mode” to real-life connection: How Pavlína Louženská reads the future
Pavlína Louženská is a trend forecaster, helping banks, startups and other organisations understand likely developments in the coming years – and plan accordingly. When we spoke, the conversation took in the methods Louženská employs to predict the future, why Czechs may be less bothered about keeping up to date than other nations, whether it’s embarrassing to be a “laggard” – and much more.
My first question is about your background. I understand a lot of your family were technically-minded, but your grandmother was a professor of English?
“Yes, she actually spoke seven languages. She was an English teacher, a German teacher, she was teaching them all. So she really is the linguistic part of my family.
“And when I was growing up she was really my role model and inspiration for everything.”
Still, it must have been quite unusual to have a granny who was a professor of English, in the communist days?
“You know what was more unusual? Having a grandma who can’t cook.
“She was not a typical grandma. She had five husbands, she never learned how to cook and she had this amazing career; she basically worked until she was 80.
“So that was something that was unusual – to see such a strong woman who was in positions of power her whole life.”
You’re a trend forecaster. It’s such a cool-sounding profession – how did you get into it?
“Originally I worked in marketing, and I started working in fashion in marketing. And there you are trying to guess what will sell 18 months ahead, because you have to order from the brands in order to sell 18 months later.
“That’s the first moment where you really start to dig deeper. You’re looking for any type of tool, or ideas, that help you be more sure about what you are going to buy.
“So that was the first moment when I explored it and started digging deeper.
“I started asking people questions. I got to a great conference called Future Days. It happens every year and is the biggest gathering of futurists.
“And that was the moment when I fell in love and decided this was what I wanted to do for my job.”
To digress slightly for a second, you also have a project called Holkyzmarketingu, Girls from Marketing – what is that?
“I actually sold it at the end of last year. We built one of the biggest education platforms in Central and Eastern Europe; during the last 10 years, we managed to train over 25,000 women.
“The goal was to teach women marketing, to give them more opportunities in the job market.
“Our focus was on people on maternity leave, or women who live in the regions, where there is not so much work.
“Marketing is a job that gives you more flexibility and very good opportunities for good pay.
“So that was our goal. Over 30 percent of our alumni went through scholarships and we really tried to work on giving them better chances in life.”
I was reading that you were inspired to create this at least in part by Madeleine Albright.
“Yes. I came across this famous quote by her that women should help other women.
“There was a story that when she became secretary of state she gathered all the other female foreign ministers and they created a community. They promised each other that they would always pick up a phone call from each other.
“I went to a conference and I was always approached as a waitress. And I was like, I’m one of the people who are actually leading the industry.”
“Another part of that story was that I went to a conference at that time – 10 or 12 years ago – and I was always approached as a waitress. People thought I was a waitress and they asked me to bring them Coke or beer or something.
“And I was like, No, I’m actually one of the attendees, I’m one of the speakers here, I’m one of the people who are actually leading the industry.
“It was really frustrating and I realised one thing: that even though there are not so many women in tech marketing, we don’t talk to each other.
“So I realised I wanted to keep in touch, I want to organise lunches, I want to organise trainings for us and I want for us to empower each other.”
About your trend forecasting, who are some of your main clients, or better-known clients?
“I have a lot of banking clients, and insurance companies. Also I work a lot with clients who are in B2C [business to consumer], so it would be FMCG [fast moving consumer goods] as well.
“But also what’s interesting is when I work with venture capitalists, because of course when they are investing in startups they really need to understand what is going to happen in five, 10, 12 years.
“That’s one of my favourite parts, and it really combines with my other job.
“I work for Google for Startups as a mentor for Europe, Middle East and Africa, so I try to bring my insights from that field into my trend forecasting work. So it’s usually a combination.”
About trend forecasting, how do you do it? What are the methods that you use to predict the future as best you can?
“The obvious answer here would be a crystal ball, but I’m sorry to say it’s not that. I wish it were.
“There’s a lot of work with data, but on the other side there’s also a lot of work with intuition.
“I remember my first time meeting global trend forecasters. We were on a call and I was asking them what kind of products they used, what kind of analytics they used.
“And one of them was like, You know what, I’ve actually been focused on the wellness space for the last 30 years and I kind of know when something is happening, when something feels weird.
“That’s what I call intuition. You know.
“But coming back to the more data-based parts. There are multiple approaches, but one of them would be megatrends.
“So you see what’s actually changing in society – the ageing society, climate change, urbanisation – and you can kind of predict where the world will go in 10, 20 years, and what kind of consequences that’s going to have.
“Another one is contradictions. So when something is really cool like wide jeans, you know that skinny jeans are coming back. It’s always back and forth, back and forth.
“You know if Gen Z or Generation Alpha are doing something your grandma is probably going to start to do it as well.”
“Another part is looking at younger generations. You know that if Gen Z or Generation Alpha are doing something your grandma is probably going to start to do it as well.
“So there are different approaches and it really depends on what you are after.
“If you’re a consumer brand and you’re asking what the cool kids are going to be using as makeup, you would use different frameworks or different tools or strategies than if you are a bank and are trying to craft a strategy for 2030 – then you would be more focused on megatrends.”
Generally speaking, what’s your hit rate in terms of how often you feel like you’re right in your predictions?
“I actually looked into my predictions for last year and I asked AI tools to assess me, to give me a grade, and my average grade was eight out of 10.
“I think that’s a pretty decent hit rate, considering where we are.
“90 percent of trend reports are released in 10 cities in the world – and the closest to Prague is actually Berlin.”
“What I focus on is actually Central and Eastern Europe, because the biggest challenge in my field is that 90 percent of trend reports are being released in 10 cities in the world – and the closest to Prague is actually Berlin.
“There are actually no other trend forecasting agencies that are focused on our post-communist experience, who take into consideration that our healthcare system or education system is different.
“So often the companies I work with look at trend reports, but they are written for the UK market or the US market.
“So I think what gives me a better success rate is the fact that I understand this market, that I’m really focused on that specific market in Europe.”
How closely do trends here map trends in, say, Germany, or other countries to the west of here? Are a lot of things similar? Or are there a lot of differences when it comes to trends?
“Yes and no. You would have certain trends that come from the global market. For instance, the fact that K-Pop would be so popular, and it would be something that is perceived almost the same everywhere, and is driven by YouTubers and so on.
“With a lot of trends I say they are being cosplayed, in a way.”
“And with a lot of trends I say they are being cosplayed, in a way.
“So you would have primarily US-based influencers and they would start wearing certain shoes and behaving in a certain way – and we in Europe would be cosplaying those influencers, even though it doesn’t really make sense in our market.
“A great example of this is the Stanley Cup, the thermos flask, which is designed for cars and in Prague you don’t really drive a car. But still you see girls carrying it around because it’s one of those cosplay trends.
“On the other hand, you would have a different approach to sustainability in the Czech market than in other markets, because Czechs are quite excited about nature, ecology and so on.”
What are some big trends now? I’m guessing something like doom and despair, because when I speak to people everyone’s fearing the future, and afraid for the present.
“Yes. Definitely one of the sentiments we see in society is something that Edmond Lao, a fellow forecaster, calls ‘dark mode’. It’s a shift from optimism in society, the idea that if you work out, if we really try hard, we can make the world a better place.
“But now with Ukraine, Donald Trump, Gaza – all the doom and gloom that is happening around us – we are giving up. Honestly, we are giving up.
“So see much more darkness, you see a lack of diversity and inclusion initiatives, you see how we gave up on sustainability and tackling climate change, you see overall darkness in people.
“And there are different sentiments that are tied to this main sentiment, which is often getting back to communities, really preparing for the worst within a community.
“Another one would be training for dark times. So you would see more people doing strength training and performance-oriented sports.
“That’s one. Another thing that I see, and it’s very natural, is that trends often come as direct opposites.
“So on one side there’s obsession with AI. Everything is AI; if you are not vibe coding 24/7, you are behind.
“On the other hand, you see a lot of people saying, I don’t want this technology, I want to unplug, I want to have less time on screens, I want to go to the country.
“You see a lot of young people exploring hiking, camping and so on.
“So you have all these contrasts happening in society at the same time.”
Are there any positive trends that have excited you in recent times?
“Definitely. Communities are a big thing for me – looking for this human connection.
“We keep talking about technology and how we need to automate everything and how chatbots will be taking care of us.
“There’s a lot of dystopian data around this. For example, according to Densu, around one-third of people would let AI take care of their grandparents without any oversight [laughs].
“You see this whole automation of society and us really giving up on human connection.
“But on the other hand you see more and more people coming back to each other.
“For example, I organised speed-dating events for people to meet in real life, to give up on Tinder, and we had over 400 sign-ups overnight the moment we launched.
“Because you crave that human intimacy, you crave that connection, you are looking for deep talk and you want to go beyond the performative social media drama that we have been seeing in the last few years.”
If I wanted to be a trendsetter, what advice would you give me?
“[Laughs] Start staring at people. There is a Japanese term called ‘kuuki wo yomu’ and it means reading the room.
“You enter a room and you’re hyper aware of what’s happening in that room: you’re looking at people, how they are dressed, what they are talking about.
“And this is basically what we do all the time. We are hyper aware of our environments – and then we add data to it – but you are constantly looking for something called signals, and they signal that change is about to come.
“So one of the things you can start doing is to look at the cool people around you. And it doesn’t need to be kids – it can be anybody who you consider cool. What are they doing differently? What is a hobby they picked up recently? What is it that they started wearing differently?”
Are young Czech people as focused on being cool as people might be in the States or the UK or, I don’t know, France?
“My friend from Switzerland came to visit me here. He was quite shocked and said he didn’t observe any trends in the streets.”
“The other day my friend from Switzerland came to visit me here. He was quite shocked and said he didn’t observe any trends in the streets. And he was asking me why – is it that we don’t follow?
“And one thing is that maybe you don’t follow that much, but another is that you don’t have access to the brands.
“It could be that a certain brand of blush is very cool, but if you can’t buy it in the Czech Republic then you can’t jump on that trend.
“So I think we are still struggling with accessibility of products, and also with the disposable income that you can throw at those products.”
If you’re speaking about appearance, no offence to Czechs but I think they are less concerned about that than some nations.
“Definitely. You know, when I try to explain the Czech Republic to people I often refer to Švejk. It’s this easygoing nature – we are not so radical.
“When you look at American high school movies, you either are a jock or a nerd – you kind of pick an identity.
“But we are not big identity pickers. We are OK with not having a strong identity.
“We are kind of surfing in between, and I think that makes us really easygoing, in a way.
“I don’t know if you’ve observed this, but I think we’re like, Let’s have a beer and let’s see what happens.
“And the way we approach trends is the same.”
That does sound pretty Czech to me. I was amused to read in an interview with you that the people who come to trends last are called laggards. Is there any shame to being a laggard? I think I’m a bit of one. I presume you’re an early adopter of everything?
“When we talk about this theory of adoption, I think it was developed in the ‘60s, so it’s not something that is new.
“We always talk about the innovators, who are at the beginning of a trend, and then the early adopters – the sort of cool kids and YouTubers who start talking about it.
“Then you have the early majority, the late majority – and then the laggards.
“People think about this in a linear way, but actually it’s often a circle.
“So my dad is often the coolest person I know. He’s often the first person to have Salomon hiking shoes before all the cool kids have them, because he’s usually the last one to have them.
“Also there’s another perspective to add to this. This laggard definition was very good when we had a monoculture. But now our culture is more and more falling apart, and we live in different bubbles.
“So what we see nowadays is that in one bubble you can have something that is very cool and trending, but in another bubble it’s very cringe and obsolete.
“That’s my favourite part about trends nowadays. You can always find a bubble where you are very, very cool, no matter how laggard-ish you might feel in other ones.”
Is it harder to keep up with trends as you get older, and is there a danger of trying too hard and looking foolish? For example, whenever I go to London I always see guys about 60 dressing like they’re 20.
“That’s a midlife crisis, that’s not trends probably [laughs].
“The inherent nature of trends is that you’re always going to be cringe, no matter what.”
“But I understand what you’re saying. I think the inherent nature of trends is that you’re always going to be cringe, no matter what…
“Maybe while we are doing this interview a certain type of jeans is cool, but when it comes out they will not be cool any more.
“And that’s fine. I think that’s why more and more we are having discussions about authenticity, about personal style, about really understanding yourself – and not following every bubble and hype there is.”
If you google your organisation TrendBrews it says that you are “AI powered”. I presume you must have a positive view towards AI?
“Yes and no. In my work it makes my life easier, because what I do is I do a meta-analysis of trend reports and then I compare them with the local market. So I understand how the Czech Republic is different from other countries, or the CEE as a whole.
“That’s the part of AI I use on a daily basis.
“On the other hand, what we see is that we are losing humanity because of AI.
“According to the latest data from the Institute of Family Studies, which is an American institution, 42 percent of people claim that they like talking to AI more than they like talking to humans. Nineteen percent of people have already tried romantic relationships with AI.
“One of the biggest trends is called friction-maxxing. It’s where you try to learn how to work with friction, and how not to give up on it, because dealing with friction means dealing with humans.”
“I’m really worried about this, because it’s so much easier to talk to AI, which always tells you how smart and funny you are – and then you come back to human relationships and they seem hard.
“But they should seem hard. And that’s why one of the biggest trends is actually called friction-maxxing. It’s where you try to learn how to work with friction, and how not to give up on it, because dealing with friction means dealing with humans.”
How far into the future are you typically looking?
“My typical client looks until 2030. Usually not further, because they are businesses.
“I have done worked that looked as far as 2050, but honestly that’s fantasising. I like to work with companies that can apply what I’m working on, rather than thinking about ‘once we live on Mars’.
“2030 is the usual time scope.”
When I was preparing for this interview I was reading about all your activities – and there are so many. You’re on various supervisory boards, you sit on juries, you write for the media, and do your main work. How do you balance all these things? How do you manage to achieve so much?
I’m really tired [laughs], all the time, honestly. And I don’t think I’m balancing it all.
“It would be a very dishonest answer to pretend that my inbox is not overflowing – it is.
“And I’m really grateful that I have great teams around me who are really trying to help me as much as they can.
“So I’m not alone on all these projects. There are big teams on all these projects, and that’s what makes it possible.”
