Analyst: Visegrad 4 will come under increasing pressure over refugee quotas

The leaders of the Visegrad Four – the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary – are meeting in Prague on Friday to discuss the escalating refugee crisis. Until now, Prague and other members have been against EU quotas on the acceptance of migrants; the question is could that change?

Jiří Pehe, photo: Šárka Ševčíková

I spoke to political analyst Jiří Pehe who said the stance on quotas has not helped.

“I think that a lack of solidarity especially on the part of ‘East European members’ has really divided the EU in quite a serious way. What I think the post-communist members really do not understand is that the division of refugees by country is not really a long-term solution, since it is understood that many will end up in the western part of the EU anyway. What they are really looking for is a gesture of solidarity. And I think western members feel their eastern counterparts are not really meeting their commitments.”

Is the position by some of these countries still tenable? We have a meeting of the Visegrad 4 this Friday, whose members – including the Czech Republic – remain against refugee quotas…

“I think that we may see some shift in this regard. There has been some change of mind on quotas, given that Hungary is already a large number of refugees on its territory, so there may be some change there on the part of Hungary’s prime minister, if Hungary were to be included in the quotas. In general, I think the V4 countries will face a lot of pressure from the West if they keep resisting. Already western members are questioning how they can take subsidies and get a lot of help and money if they then reject any kind of solidarity in this kind of situation.

Photo: Czech Television

Could the refugee crisis threaten one of the EU’s raisons d’étre, or could it lead to a significant change in the kind of EU we have if it ‘fails’ this test?

“Absolutely. In a sense I think that the crisis is more about the EU even than the refugees. It should be possible to accept hundreds of thousands or a few million refugees in an entity which has half-a-billion people. If you compare it to the US, where there are 11 million illegal immigrants, Europe should be able to absorb many more than it has. It is really about the EU and the EU has been tested severely. The refugee crisis, in effect, has uncovered some major problems in the European structure.”